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EURAUD Technical Outlook

The EURAUD currency pair hasn't been covered for a while instead preferring to let it go about its corrective business. Let's now revisit it and see if we can get a grip on a potential price path going forward using the weekly and monthly charts.


EURAUD Weekly Chart

EURAUD Weekly Chart

There looks to be a 5 point broadening low in play denoted by the numbers 1 to 5 with price seemingly just starting to make its way to a point 4 high.

The Bollinger Bands show price has left the lower band and is now at the middle band. I expect this to be a pit stop only as it heads up to the upper band.

The PSAR indicator now has a bullish bias after price just busted the dots on the upside.

The RSI now has a higher high and higher low in place indicating strength is building while the Stochastic and MACD indicators has recently made bullish crossovers and look to have some good upside ahead.

Where do I expect the point 4 high to be?

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from January 2014 high to recent low and I am targeting the 88.6% level at 1.5585. The pattern of trading looks to be a messy consolidation and that is one reason I favour a deep retracement. Price may even trade a bit higher. Let's see.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the January 2014 high to recent low and I am looking for price to find resistance around the 88.6% angle. Pushing a bit higher as price gives this angle a good test looks to be just below the 88.6% retracement level in August 2015.

Let's move on to the monthly chart.


EURAUD Monthly Chart

EURAUD Monthly Chart

We can see the move up from August 2012 low has subsequently put in a higher high at 1.5831. This was right around resistance from the previous swing low denoted by the horizontal line.

We can see the projected 5 point broadening low with the recent point 2 high just below the horizontal line which stands at 1.5478. I favour the point 4 high to be just above this previous swing low level.

The Stochastic indicator looks to be threatening a bullish crossover while the MACD indicator is still trending down with a bearish bias but the move down looks in need of a break and price rallying would fix that.

The PSAR indicator shows the dots being busted all over the place which is evidence of the corrective behaviour being exhibited by price and I expect the dots currently on the upside to be busted again shortly as price makes its way to the point 4 high.

Once the expected point 4 high is in place I expect a big move down into a point 5 low. Where is this low likely to be?

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from August 2012 low to the recent high set in January 2014. This was the first rally in a new bull trend and the first correction often makes a deep retracement. Hence, I am targeting the 76.4% level at 1.2605 at the minimum although I think the 88.6% level at 1.2090 will be a tad too far.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan and I am looking for price to give the 88.6% angle a good test before turning back up.

Once that point 5 low is in place, we will have a pattern consisting of a higher high and a higher low. From there a big uptrend can ensue. That's how I see it anyway.

 

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