• 773 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 774 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 776 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,175 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,180 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,182 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,185 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,185 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,186 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,188 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,188 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,192 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,192 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,193 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,195 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,196 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,199 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,200 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,200 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,202 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Lindsay: Forecasting the End of the Bull Market - Part 1

The first step in forecasting an important high is accomplished using Lindsay's 15yr interval. It isolates an eleven month period in which the high is found. Lindsay wrote that the interval (15yr-15yr, 11m) can be counted from any "important" low leaving the identification of the low somewhat ambiguous.

In my own attempt to derive a more structured approach to identifying "important" lows I found that most successful intervals have their origins at either a labeled point on Lindsay's long cycle (points A, C, E, G, I, and K)or the low of a Separating Decline in a Three Peaks/Domed House pattern. However, most does not mean always and that is the situation we find ourselves in presently.

The final low before the bull market top in 2000 was in Oct 1999. It counts (15yr-15yr, 11m) to a high in the period Oct 2014-Sept 2015.

The next 15y interval is counted from the low in 2002. It forecasts a high in the period from Oct 2017-Sept 2018 . Lindsay did write that the period between points D and A is roughly 12yrs, A to E is 7yrs, and A to J is 15yrs. A high in 2018 matches expectations for point J to be 15yrs beyond point A (10/10/02). Point J need not be higher than point H.

Lindsay's long cycle
Larger Image

Long Cycles since 1798

 


Get your copy of the May Lindsay Report at SeattleTA.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment