Last time I wrote, I was looking for a top in the stock market early last week near 2130-35 SPX and a 5% drop in silver. We got a 4.5% drop in silver and the stock market topped on Wednesday. Tuesday, May 26, I'm looking for a big drop in silver, perhaps as much as 7.5% and a small drop in the stock market to perhaps 2109/10 SPX.
The 12.5/25 TD low is due Tuesday, so we may see strength from that date into June 1 and new highs in the stock market (near 2140?). From there, we may drop as much as 5% or so into around June 9/10. Mercury Retrograde's mid point is due around June 1 and markets that don't reverse when Mercury goes retrograde (like silver did) usually reverse around this time.
With Jupiter Trine Uranus on June 22, I would expect an 8 TD barn burner rally to new highs. This whole set up reminds me of Dec 5-16 last year and then Dec 16 to the 29th. Silver looks like it is entering another bearish mode and is likely to keep dropping into July 6th, based on Mercury Retrograde.
The charts below explain my thinking (I reserve the right to change my mind).
The point of market forecasting is to put out a roadmap of possibilities, not to necessarily be right all the time. There is an old saying, "Trade the market, not the forecast". Some of the best traders out there are only right 30-50% of the time. The big difference between those who succeed trading and those who don't is in "recognizing when you are wrong and repositioning". One cannot be afraid to take a loss. Staying in a losing position, hoping it will come back, is a fast track to blowing up an account.
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