Last time I wrote, the market looked toppy and I was anticipating a 2.5 week low Tuesday (which used to be the dominant 5 week lo). We rallied Wednesday after the expected selling then sold off the rest of the week. I had said that I expected a June 1 top, but after careful study realized that the top would be June 3 instead.
The Mercury Retrograde mid-point low is due 12 calendar days after the initial retrograde point May 18-19, which points to May 30/31 for the low. That means the low will be on June 1 because May 30/31 falls on a weekend. There is also an adjusted Gann 16 TD low due Monday too. I expect initial buying (9/10 pts) on a possible gap up followed by selling down to about SPX 2085/86.
Things look to get wild as we likely rally to slight new highs by June 3 near 2134/35 SPX! This means that after an initial top to bottom drop of about 30 points on Monday, we should see a 50 point rise in less than 2 trading days! Then to make things crazier, we should fall all the way to the 2074/75 area by June 12, interrupted with a huge rally June 8 to June 10. This is the way things have been going with this schizoid market: "I have no place to put my money; stocks are too expensive; buy-sell-buy-sell-buy-sell ad naseum."
I have been expecting a May-June correction, but I no longer think that will be the case. After a huge C Wave rally from June 12 to 22 (Jupiter trine Uranus, not Neptune as I stated in the chart below), we should then begin the long awaited 10% correction into around July 16/17, the actual 39/40 week low from the October 15, 2104 bottom (things may get back to normal yet!). Sun Conj. Mars (not Sun sq. Mars) on June 14 portends the correction within about a month (sorry, I get these planets all mixed up!).
Below is an hourly chart of the S&P 500 with e-wave/cycle denotation (plus lines of resistance):
Silver still looks to be in a down trend that could last into June 8/12. We made good money on a short last week.
I keep saying (and at the risk of being rude I repeat) this is no longer a buy and hold market, but a traders' market. The easy money has been made. There is more risk right now to the down side than potential gain to the upside.
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Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info
To view the details more clearly, you may visit our free chart look at www.charts.blustarmarkettimer.com. This web site is also updated periodically as events unfold.