• 528 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 529 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 531 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 930 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 935 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 937 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 940 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 940 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 941 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 943 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 943 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 947 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 947 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 948 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 950 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 951 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 954 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 955 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 955 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 957 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Shifting Sentiment in Spain: 2011 vs. 2015; Could an Anti-Euro Party Win the 2015 Spanish National Election?

Maps of municipal elections in Spain in 2011 vs. the recent 2015 elections show a remarkable change in leadership.

Maps of municipal elections in Spain in 2011 vs. the recent 2015 elections

  • PP - Blue - People's Party - Party of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy
  • PSOE - Red - Spanish Socialist Workers' Party - typically the largest competitor in what was once primarily a two-party system, but is no longer
  • PNV - Green - Basque Country
  • CiU - Yellow - Convergence and Union
  • Podemos - Purple

The alliances are very complex, but note the rise of Podemos (purple).

Also recall that the Podemos "Economic Manifesto" Calls for Debt Restructuring, Spain to Abandon the "Euro Trap".

I believe Podemos has tempered some of those claims (possibly an election ploy), but party leader, Pablo Iglesias, is very close friends with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.

For the first time in 24 years, PP did not carry the vote in the Madrid municipal election. Instead, Manuela Carmena, a Podemos-backed, anti-austerity candidate is now Madrid's new mayor.


National Elections This Year

Spanish national elections are this year (on or before December 20), with no date set as of yet.

The most likely dates are purported to be October 25 or a Sunday in November other than November 1, All Saints Day, a religious holy day for Catholics.


Election Outlook

At this juncture it is impossible for any party to get a majority of votes.

So what happens?

Wikipedia reports on 2015 Spanish Election details.

Unlike other neighboring countries' practice, such as Portugal, Greece or Italy, elections in Spain that result in hung parliaments rarely result in coalition governments at the national level. Rather, the party with the most seats has historically formed a minority government with the confidence and supply support of other parties, relying on legislature pacts or, in the event of a party holding a working majority (not absolute but large enough to govern on its own right), ad hoc agreements and/or variable geometry pacts, in order to pass legislation through the Congress.


Opinion Polls

This could get very interesting, especially if Podemos can pull off an upset. And it won't even be that much of an upset according to recent opinion polls.

Rise of Podemos

It's very conceivable that an anti-euro party will find itself in power, in Spain, later this year!

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment