The following is commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Monday, June 8, 2015.
We are all in the flow of it - both physically and psychologically - where it should be understood - bottom line human behavior is a function of Mother Nature - believe it or not. We know this to be true because our behavior can be measured mathematically if one knows what to look for, implying while every aspect and outcome may not be quantifiable, amazingly, mass flows can. Known to most as mass (or crowd) psychology, humans have endeavored to measure this phenomenon within formal constructs that both recognize and dismiss this understanding, but in the end it's the numbers that prove theory, as will be demonstrated on these pages today. So those of you who think human behavior is independent of these forces should think again, because if you want to survive what is coming, one will need to adapt to the false conventional wisdom and propagandist doctrine being imposed on us by the technocrats.
The current state of our global political economy is best be described as a fully mature neo-fascist / neo-feudal monolith centered around the colonial Western Model based in Globalization that has peaked as the primary organizational construct organizing human interaction on the planet, now reverberating towards decentralization as the sandcastles of fiat economy are taken back by the wind. Our fascist elites understand the power of mass psychology well, employing it on a daily basis via all levels of media in order to distract and destabilize the masses while systematically attempt to acquire more power and wealth - fiat sandcastles in the sky. Despite these efforts however, nature is taking its course concurrently, invisibly controlling the totality of the nexus unbeknownst to the perverts (of nature), which will prove to be the definer of outcomes in the end.
The Russians know this, which is why they continue to accumulate permanent commodity money that will transcend future political / economic upheaval. They understand that no matter how far the technocrats push, that man's frailties will always emerge and corrupt efforts to push aside the natural flow, and that conservatism is best in such matters. They understand human beings are transients on earth and could go the way of the dinosaurs in the end no matter what happens in between. They understand the ephemeral properties of 'vapor wealth' (thanks Max Keiser), the fragile and temporary asset constructs technocrats use to control political economy. Again however, you should know all this finagling will not matter in the end. The math tells us we have a predetermined destiny in a larger sense, as measured by Fibonacci.
In case you don't already know, what Fibonacci discovered centuries ago, is movement in nature has a signature that is repeated across the full spectrum, which was later applied to human behavior, and more specifically, financial markets. This is of course the technique, or methodology, we have employed in calculating market projections, where Fibonacci signatures tend to define both advances and retracements more often than not. As you can see below, in terms of the broad market we are using the S&P 500 SPX) / CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Ratio (see below) because of the identifiable Fibonacci signature present in the trade, which is not present in just the index itself. The VIX is a primary tool of financial repression (engineering) utilized by US price managers, which may be the reason this is the case. Failure to reach the prescribed Fibonacci resonance target would portend bad things, as this would be an indication the natural order has been terminally disrupted due to technocrat shenanigans.
How could this occur? Well, for one thing, by turning the stock market into a perceived ATM machine (by participants who understand it's rigged), where it's though the bureaucracy's price mangers will not allow any sustainable losses now (think buybacks, hedge funds, prop desks, PPT, etc.), this has brought leveraged exposures to record levels, which is a recipe for a crash that could be triggered by an outside force not factored in to a particular Fibonacci signature. In this case we have Chinese participation rates, where new accounts openings are now in The Twighlihght Zone. This might be the bubble of bubbles we need to worry about, however it should be pointed out Chinese and other stock markets of the world have dubious correlation factors at best. Still however, more recently US market participants have grown increasingly concerned about the situation in China, so one cannot rule out a meltdown in foreign stocks affecting Western markets. (See Figure 1)
When a market is manipulated, the Laws of Nature are thwarted by man for as long as the manipulation exists, only to be reasserted when said manipulation ends, assuming the market survives. In the case of physical necessities required by man to exist, it doesn't matter if a man-made exchange that has been corrupted ceases to function because the commerce will simply shift to new or alternate platforms, which is essentially the story behind physical gold trade moving from faulty and fraudulent Western markets (COMEX and LBMA) to Chinese platforms (Shanghai Gold Exchange [SGE], etc.), where the rule of law is still enforced. The greedy bastards on Wall Street and in London think they can screw people with no ramifications because they make the rules. However they fail to realize they have imploded from within already because the people of the world not under their collective thumb (think China, Russia, BRICS, etc.) are moving away from the theft and corruption in Western markets as fast as they possibly can. (See Figure 2)
You will know this trend has reached critical mass when silver moves back above $25 ($21.50 technically), the large round number. Once it does this, it should move above long-term resistance at $50 quickly as localized pricing machinations associated with Western suppression are overcome, which would be the ultimate indication the unipolar US dominated world has officially come to an end. Silver is a small and localized market(s), making it the official 'whipping boy' of the Western bureaucracy because it's easily manipulated and due to its influence on gold trading (it's used to help manipulate gold lower), which is far less controlled and functions in a global sphere. Therein, you will know when China is ready to assert itself as a primary source of global hegemony, with the help of a growing list of its friends (think BRICS, Europe, Asia, etc.), by watching silver trade, where again, once it's able to clear $25 on a lasting basis, the shift of power within the global matrix will be officially signaled. (See Figure 3)
Because when the silver trade gets away from Western price managers - it's all over. If they lose control of this small and easily controlled market, that means their influence on global trade will be negligible - and a price discovery in previously manipulated markets should rapidly move in the direction(s) dictated by fundamentals, not the whims of bureaucrats and bankers. This should cause radial price movements higher in precious metals and lower in stocks in surprisingly fast fashion, allowing the Silver / SPX Ratio to break higher towards the Fibonacci resonance related signature denoted on the chart above. Silver has been held down for too long in an un-natural state for this story to turn out any other way. Again, sooner or later Western price managers will lose control of their manipulative practices and gold, led by silver, will need to be revalued, which will be the central component of a system wide reset.
Signs of a high degree top in stocks like those witnessed in 2000 and 2007 are everywhere now (see here, here, here, here, and here). In fact, when you think about it, considering all the QE, ZIRP, and now NIRP, present circumstances are far worse because of all this financial engineering and crony capitalism, which is why things, including stocks, may not be able to bounce back once they turn lower. Because we are not going into a routine recession, which is what the status quo boys will want you to believe when it comes. No, this time it's going to be a bona fide Depression, which will be so deep and widespread, that only the real crazies and people who don't bother to eat will be able to deny it. Sure, things will always recover over time, but again, this time the recovery process will be slow, patchy, and indistinguishable to growing numbers of disenfranchised Western mobs.
Right now these people must appear to be a bunch of lethargic idiots to those looking in, but this will change once the permanence of their deteriorating dispositions is realized. The bread and circus routines currently employed for distraction are increasingly beginning to wear thin, especially in periphery states not enjoying the fruits of centralized power. (i.e. in Brussels, London, New York, and Washington.) This is why we are seeing the decentralization process accelerating now, where everything from ISIS, to Greece (is Spain next?), to Baltimore, to the larger international scene, are a function of this new trend. The unipolar dominance of the America is coming to an end and you had better realize this - and prepare. Because once process gains critical mass, the changes will be both radical (fast) and profound.
So again, in terms of the markets moving forward from here, while failures in the SPX / VIX Ratio, Dow / Gold Ratio, etc. to reach their Fibonacci signatured targets is always possible, both Mother Nature and technical indications are still pointing to higher stocks and lower precious metals in the offing, and until we have definitive failures, this will remain our view. In terms of catalysts, you may know Greece missed an IMF payment on Friday, which was a first by any country since the 80's. But you should know they still have until month's end to make a 'bundled payment', so along as they come to some kind of an agreement before this time, say by the end of next week, the can kicking should continue, which would set the stage for a month end rally in stocks, and bashing of precious metals, just in time for COMEX options expiry.
Again, in terms of silver, we still have it going to $14ish before it takes off to the upside for two reasons. First, the market must purge the idiot paper market speculators before Western pricing mechanisms will allow for higher prices, assuming they continue to play the dominant role in global price discovery. And second, this also allows for a price shock when the larger equity complex initially collapses as well, whenever that may be. (i.e. beginning sometime in summer or fall.) This, is what would allow the SPX / SLV Ratio to reach our long-term target in the 160's, as well as see the SPX / VIX Ratio (see above) finish a month in the 225 area (or above) to complete the sinusoidal as well. If we are lucky enough to witness these two technical feats defined by Mother Nature herself, then we would have a better than even chance on bets geared to lasting reversals in these markets.
We would be investing in the wisdom of Mother Nature. We would have her power on our side. This is what we would need to counter the self-anointed gods that consider themselves - the powers that be. (i.e. think New York and London bankers, politicians, and other kleptocrats.)
They have forgotten nature is supreme. Man usually suffers a hard earned lesson when this kind of thing is allowed.
This time will be no different - and quite possibly magnitudes above any other such instance in history.
Bank on it.