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Update: A Caution/Danger Area for The SPY ...

The chart below shows the Weekly SPY going back to 2008. Alan Greenspan expressed it well when he said the "best bang for the buck (on QE money) is a rising stock market" ... and so it has been. A good question to ask yourself is: What about the natural ebb and flow of economic cycles that we normally have ... what happens to them and for how long?

Today, note the pattern that the Weekly SPY chart is showing below (it was updated on the last closing day of last week). The pattern you see is called a rising wedge because it becomes narrower as the market moves higher. This pattern keeps moving up ... until it fatigues and breaks to the downside. Historically, this particular pattern has had sharp down moves when the pattern finally ended.

Note how the SPY was just below the support line last week ... this is a high risk-danger area. Please see the second posted chart below ...

Weekly SPY Wedge from 2009 Chart

This chart is simply a close up of the above chart. However, do not neglect what it has to say: The SPY is in a large trading range while it is also getting close to the rising wedge's support line. Currently, the SPY is below its rising wedge pattern.

Weekly SPY Wedge from 2012 Chart


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