Solid move higher in our 7 month basing patterns this week on the SP 500 and Dow with those indices firming near our 200 EMA's near the 2,040-50 area SP 500 and 17,450-600 area on the Dow. 2 days back we saw strong Gaps higher across our 20/50 EMA's which tend to trap the short interest and will likely provide support on dips. Today we took a breather in our overall trend as we saw some unwinding off the intraday charts which had hit near 70 RSI by the close yesterday. So far the bulls have successfully defended both Daily and Weekly supports on the SP 500 with our Daily chart with our key resistance level big picture coming in at the 2,130-35 area. See our Daily view below:
After the bell we saw solid earnings from INTC and NFLX and are waiting to get the results of the Greece parliament vote due out sometime this evening. The wrong vote would send Greece out of the euro zone, out of the euro and send the global market reeling lower. No one expects that to happen but there was some anxiety out there so with the averages overbought on the short term charts we saw the Spy close about seventy cents off the highs. The unwinding was the important part to me. A little more would be best but we may not get it due to earnings but more on that in a bit. Bottom line is the market averages held well today after doing some unwinding. The oscillators pulled back rapidly with very little price erosion and that is normally good news for the bulls. We shall wait on the vote this evening and if the vote confirms the euro zones demands already accepted by the Greek leader Tsipras, then that whole situation will finally be behind us for the short/mid term and that would be very welcome news for all.
The Dow 7 Month base mirrors that of the SP 500 as we saw a nice turn up off our 17,475 support region this week and should find support now on dips back to our 20/50 EMA's area:
So if Greece is finally behind us in terms of uncertainty, where do we turn for the next catalyst to bring this market up and out or down and out. The answer would be earnings. Thus far the bulls are carrying the upper hand in a very large way. Many companies took the road of short term pain last quarter by reporting not only poor results but lowering the outlook by quite a bit. Many probably figured they were over doing the pessimism but lower those expectations and then beat them. That's smart thinking and thus far it's working out quite well. Leaders such as Jpm, Wfc, Jnj, Bac and Pnc all did this and were rewarded over the past two days with solid up sticks. This evening we are seeing a very powerful move out of Intc which has been a major laggard for quite some time. important companies are reporting really good numbers based on them being lowered last quarter and with froth the name of the game, that's good enough for most folks. There's no way to know if this trend will continue onward but if you're a bull you have to be very happy with what's taken place thus far on the earnings front. Tough for the bears to get much traction with these types of positive reports. The Banks have responded very positively as we see in the Weekly Banking sector chart which is up close to 3% for the week seen below. The expectation is for higher rates in time which should help out the sector and market:
The fed was out talking again today and she's making sure the world knows every time she speaks now that rates will begin a slow move higher in the coming months regardless of what happens overseas. She says she's confident that the economy is doing well enough for the cycle to begin. A slow cycle at that but she's making sure the market is prepared and that's smart. No uncertainty. Just the fact that it will happen but no worries as the process will be very slow and she's also making sure everyone knows she has the markets best interest at heart. The market can now basically shrug off the rate hike when it actually does take place. The fed is in control and won't let the market take a big hit on the interest rate front. Bottom line is the market will hopefully get past its biggest hurdle tonight regarding Greece and if it occurs the way the market thinks it will, it's possible earnings will be the catalyst for an eventual breakout over 2134 on the SP 500 in time.