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Market Report: Three's a Crowd

SPX

The SPX still appears to be inside the suspected ending diagonal pattern that has been going on from the Oct 2014 lows (aka Bullard lows). The overall look still appears to support the idea of a bearish wedge, or what Elliotticians call an ending diagonal, the back and forth whip is classic behavior for such a pattern, both the bulls and bears get taken to the cleaners as the market is likely ending the trend from the Oct 2011 lows. Once wave 3 or C is completed we should then embark on the largest decline since 2011.

SPX 4-Hour Chart
Larger Image

The market is essentially going nowhere expect grind higher in a wedge formation, it's a standard pattern that all technicians should be aware of, and once it's completed an aggressive reversal is seen. Ideally we still see new all time highs, although if the prior lows at 2063SPX are lost, I will assume that the market truncated at 2032SPX and wave 4 is underway to 1800. For aggressive traders new highs above 2134SPX will be a gift to sell, expect to read bullish stories and comments like "you must be mad to sell this market" that's the sort of comments you should expect at the top of a trend. The ending diagonal is a classic reversal pattern; in this case it so happens to be at the top of a trend.

SPX Weekly Chart
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Until next time,
Have a profitable week ahead.

 

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