• 1,163 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 1,164 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 1,165 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,565 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,570 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,572 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,575 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,575 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,576 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,578 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,578 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,582 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,582 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,583 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,585 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,586 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,589 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,590 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,590 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,592 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Rates In This World? Currency Crisis Edition

A month ago China's stock bubble was bursting and Greece was imploding. Yet the US Fed, in a violation of both headline sentiment and common sense, was still promising to raise interest rates come September.

Fast forward to this week. China's surprise currency devaluation has sent the global markets into a tailspin, but rather than spiking on the sudden drop in a major trading partner currency, the US dollar is plunging against the euro and most other currencies. Why? Because a global currency crisis is just about the last situation in which the world's major central bank would be expected to tighten.

Suddenly, traders are concluding that maybe rates won't rise after all:

Fallout from China's yuan devaluation weakens dollar

(MarketWatch) - The dollar weakened against most of its emerging-markets and industrialized rivals Wednesday as investors fretted that China's devaluation of the yuan could cause Federal Reserve officials to delay an expected increase in their benchmark interest rate.

The ICE U.S. Dollar index DXY, -1.16% , a measure of the dollar's strength against a basket of six rival currencies, was down 1% to 95.9920.

China's decision to let the yuan drop caused emerging-markets currencies in Asia and elsewhere to depreciate in sympathy, as some investors anticipated central banks around the world will shift to a more accommodative monetary policy. This would push the dollar even higher, which could cause the Federal Reserve to hold off on raising interest rates for fear that the dollar has become too much of a drag on U.S. economic growth.

"The China move on FX, rightly or wrongly, is being seen as something that's muting the policy divergence theme," said Josh O'Byrne, G-10 FX Strategist at Citigroup.

Speculators unwinding bets on emerging-markets currencies also helped push the dollar lower, as they bought back the euros and yen they had used to fund those trades, said Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank.

The euro EURUSD, +1.3222% rose 1.4% to $1.1197 from $1.1044 late Tuesday in New York, while the dollar shed 1% against the yen USDJPY, -0.94% to trade at ¥123.88 down from ¥125.07 late Tuesday.

So now we have currency turmoil in the developing world, equity corrections and possibly bear markets in the developed world, and deflation pretty much everywhere. None of this argues for a stronger dollar or higher interest rates.

Even before the latest shock, the Fed was starting to accommodate this view by sending out talking heads to make the soften the September rate hike. From MarketWatch over the weekend:

...But comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Monday may have helped ease some of those concerns. He told Bloomberg TV he doesn't expect the first interest-rate hike by the U.S. central bank in more than nine years to occur until after inflation returns closer to the Fed's target of around 2%.

Another week like this one and the idea of any central bank anywhere raising interest rates will be laughed out of the room.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment