• 1 day Ireland Balks At Biden’s Global Tax Plan
  • 4 days Robinhood To Trade On Nasdaq Targeting $32B Valuation
  • 8 days Facial Recognition Is Watching You
  • 9 days Biden’s $3.5T ‘Human Infrastructure’ Workaround
  • 9 days The Fed’s $3 Trillion Headache
  • 12 days Why Bitcoin Could Struggle To Recover After Epic Crash
  • 12 days Wells Fargo Back In The Spotlight Over Personal Loan Cancellations
  • 13 days Delta Variant Real Threat To Economic Recovery
  • 16 days JEDI Drama Continues With Microsoft Contract Cut
  • 18 days DiDi Shares Take a Beating From Chinese Regulators
  • 19 days Thousands Of Companies Hit In Latest Ransomware Attack
  • 19 days Jobs Report Has Big Numbers, But Still Big Problems
  • 20 days Robinhood’s ‘Mission’ Questioned in $70M Fine
  • 23 days Didi Just Went Public, And Uber Is Loving It
  • 24 days Islamic Finance On Track To Hit $3.7 Trillion
  • 25 days The Lumber Bubble Is Bursting
  • 29 days A New Entry In The Two Trillion Dollar Club
  • 29 days 3 Upcoming IPOs To Watch As IPO Market Rebounds
  • 31 days Welcome To The Used Car Bonanza
  • 32 days The Year Of The Retail Investor Keeps Getting Bigger
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Clive Maund

Clive Maund

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports.

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Red Alert for 2nd Crash Downwave...

Originally published August 30th, 2015.

We are believed to be at an excellent juncture right now to short the broad stockmarket (or buy bear ETFs and Puts). As we know, we did just that before the dramatic plunge early last week, and are now "sitting pretty". Now is the time to add to positions, or if you haven't any and are looking for the right shorting opportunity, this is it.

To see just why now is an excellent time to enter short positions or build on existing short positions (inverse ETFs / Puts) we will now look at the latest 1-year chart for the S&P500 index. All those who bought in the large rectangular pattern drawn on the chart, labeled the "Mug Pen" are like sheep huddled in a corral waiting to be fleeced. Even after the sharp rally late last week they are nursing significant losses, and if they get the chance to "get out even" or nearly so, they are going to take it. What is likely to happen is that they will almost get the chance, but not quite, because the market will turn down again soon, or immediately, and they will have to make a run for it if they want to avoid a severe fleecing. This means that as soon as the market starts to drop away again, they will stampede to unload stocks while they still can at reasonable prices, exacerbating the rate of decline. This is a big reason that another severe downleg is expected.

S&P500 ndex 1-Year Chart

On the 3-month chart for the Dow Jones Industrials we can see recent action in detail, and how the market may right now be topping after the technical rebound last week, with a potential "Evening Doji Star" reversal forming on the chart, that will be confirmed by a drop tomorrow...

Dow Jones Industrials 3-Month Chart

The seriousness of the situation is made clear by the long-term 10-year chart for the S&P500 index on which we can see that a long overdue cyclical bearmarket has been signaled by last week's plunge, which involved a clear breakdown from a large bearish Rising Wedge. What we are seeing now is a final backtest of the "round number" resistance at 2000, formerly support that failed, before we enter a brutal self-feeding downtrend that is likely to be steep. This looks like the last opportunity to get out, or go short at good prices. Those who follow Wall St's advice to "buy selectively" will learn to their dismay that the market doesn't discriminate much when it comes to the damage it inflicts during a severe bearmarket phase - pretty much everything will be hit and hard.

S&P500 Index 10-Year Chart

For those who are experienced and comfortable with trading options, a wide range of suitable big stock Puts are detailed in two articles on the site, Big Stock Put Options for Market Crash - Round 2 and Big Stock Put Options for Market Crash - worthy additions.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment