• 12 hours The Pandemic Proof $53 Billion Industry Wall Street Can’t Ignore
  • 15 hours Will Gold Hit $2,000?
  • 19 hours Trump’s Proposed Regulation Could Slow The ESG Boom
  • 2 days India To Auction 41 Coal Assets
  • 2 days Eldorado Sees Gold Production Soar In Second Quarte
  • 3 days Do Gold Stocks Still Have Upside Potential?
  • 4 days The S&P 500’s Top Companies Hold $2.5 Trillion In Debt
  • 4 days Electric Vehicle Rebound Bolsters Battery Metal Growth
  • 5 days BlackRock Makes A Run On Asian Stocks
  • 5 days Gold Prices Surge Above $1,800
  • 6 days Chinese Stocks Soar On Bullish Economic Data
  • 6 days Apple’s “Holy Grail Of Data” Leaves Energy Traders Disappointed
  • 6 days Gold Rally Adds $250 Billion To Top 50 Miners' Market Cap
  • 7 days TikTok Is Becoming A New Battleground For Tech Politics
  • 7 days Peru's Mining Industry Pummeled As Coronavirus Cases Surge
  • 7 days Why The World Is So Divided In Its COVID-19 Response
  • 8 days Equities Cheer Stellar Jobs Report, But It May Be Fleeting
  • 9 days Is Tech Billionaire Peter Thiel Done With Trump?
  • 9 days Musk Takes To Twitter To Troll The SEC
  • 10 days Lunar Mining May Commence As Early As 2025
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Copper Bear Rally Underway

Copper has rallied recently and I believe this to be the start of a significant bear rally. Let's analyse the technicals of the daily, weekly and monthly charts.


Copper Daily Chart

Daily Copper Chart

I have drawn two horizontal lines which denote previous swing high levels. Price recently traded above both these levels so we have a higher high in place.

The recent low set up a triple bullish divergence on the RSI which often leads to a significant rally.

The Stochastic and MACD indicators have just turned bearish which leads me to believe price is now headed down to put in a higher low.

The Bollinger Bands show price back at the middle band which may provide temporary support while I expect price to eventually get back to the lower band.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move up from recent low to recent high. The first correction in a new bull trend often makes a deep correction and I am targeting around the 76.4% level at $2.28 to bring in the higher low.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan and I suspect the higher low will be back down around support from the 88.6% angle.


Copper Weekly Chart

Weekly Copper Chart

I have drawn a downtrend line and price has busted above it indicating a short term uptrend is now in play.

The recent low showed a bullish divergence on the RSI while both the Stochastic and MACD indicators are now bullish.

The PSAR indicator has a bullish bias after price busted the dots on the upside the week before last. I suspect price may now go down to test this indicator support with the dots now on the downside.

The Bollinger Bands show price is now at the middle band. Perhaps price does some work around this band before heading to the upper band.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down from recent high to recent low. My minimum expectation for this rally is a deep retracement up to at least the 76.4% level at $2.78. If a lower high is put in then I actually favour even higher up around the 88.6% level at $2.87.

However, my personal opinion is that an even greater rally is set to occur. There is the potential for a 5 point broadening low to form. If that is the case then price is now headed up to put in a point 4 high which would need to be above the point 2 high at $2.96. After that, price should resume the downtrend to a point 5 low.

I have drawn two horizontal lines which denote previous swing highs set in July 2014 and December 2013 at $3.29 and $3.45 respectively. I expect price to turn back down below these levels.


Copper Monthly Chart

Monthly Copper Chart

The RSI shows a bullish divergence at the recent low.

The Stochastic and MACD indicators are both still bearish but a solid rally now would change that if only for a short time.

The Bollinger Bands show price appears to be leaving the lower band. A lower high would likely see price turn down around the middle band while a more substantial rally, which I favour, would see price turn back down around the upper band.

I have drawn an Andrew's Pitchfork and I am looking for price to find resistance at the upper channel and possibly make a false break above it.

As outlined in previous analysis, there appears to be a massive 5 point broadening top in play with price now headed down to put in a point 4 low. This would need to be below the point 2 low which stands at $1.25.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the whole bull market and I am targeting the final point 4 low to be around the 88.6% level which stands at $1.06.

Summing up, I believe a significant bear rally is underway. Once the rally high is in place then I expect the downtrend to resume and gain momentum.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment