• 3 hours $5 Million Gold Toilet Vanishes
  • 3 hours Gold On The Rise After Fed Rate Cut
  • 6 hours Oil Trader Loses $320 Million On Derivative Bets
  • 1 day S&P 500 Officially In An Earnings Recession
  • 1 day Miners Are Weathering The Trade War Storm
  • 1 day UK Credit Card Interest Rates Are Skyrocketing
  • 2 days From Frenzy To Flop, The Death Of This Year’s Most Hyped IPO
  • 2 days Are Smart TVs Spying On Us?
  • 2 days Is Fossil Fuel Divestment A Waste Of Time?
  • 3 days A Russian Billionaire’s Space Quest To Save Humanity
  • 3 days Markets Take Breather As Consolidation Continues
  • 3 days Economic Woes Weigh On Copper Prices
  • 3 days World's Largest IPO At Risk Following Drone Strikes
  • 4 days Gold Is Beating Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway
  • 4 days What’s Behind The Silver Sell-Off?
  • 4 days The Retail Apocalypse Is Accelerating
  • 5 days The Top Tech Stocks Of The Year
  • 5 days America’s Workforce Elderly Workforce To Double By 2028
  • 5 days Toyota Tests Solar-Powered Prius
  • 6 days Why The Gold Rally Flatlined
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

SP500 Index update - End Run Smash Looks Imminent...

Originally published September 19th, 2015.

The market didn't waste any time "getting on with it" yesterday after the bearish action on the day of the Fed announcement. It fell, and hard. We are going to look at this carefully because what appears to be starting is a devastating "end run around the line" smash - if so a brutal plunge is just around the corner.

A few days back we were a little too accommodating in adjusting the upper boundary of the Pennant shown on the 3-month chart below when the index pushed out of the top of it. We shouldn't have and on this chart we are going back to our original Pennant boundaries, which is important as it enables us to define where the support is at the apex of the Pennant. As you will recall the upside breakout from the Pennant, on the basis of its original boundaries, was regarded with deep suspicion, and it appears to have been the product of manipulation - Fed buying to "paint the tape", especially as there was no such breakout in other markets like the London FTSE and Tokyo Nikkei, where a parallel Pennant had formed. If so then they may soon end up with egg on their faces.

S&P500 3-Month Chart

Other world market indices such as the Europe STOXX600 shown here, and the London FTSE and the Tokio Nikkei, which have similar bear Flags or Pennants completing, did not confirm the false upside breakout from the Pennant on the US S&P500 index before the Fed announcement...

STOXX600 6-Month Chart

Meanwhile, the Transports, which had a surprisingly big recovery rally after the August plunge, are perfectly positioned to drop away hard after failing at downtrend line resistance with a bearish "Shooting Star" and then breaking down from their recovery uptrend...

Dow Transports 6-Month Chart

The market is at a critical juncture because yesterday it dropped to the support at the apex of the Pennant. If this fails - and it is expected to perhaps after a minor bounce - then we will quickly find ourselves in an "end run" smash situation, which is what happens when a Pennant or Triangle breakout fails in this manner. The market should drop away fast, perhaps like a rock, and the downside target for this move is 1730, which it could easily exceed. However, if it doesn't slice through the support at the August lows in the 1870 area and sticks there we may ditch half of our Puts there for a good profit, and let the rest ride. We'll see how it looks when it gets there. With respect to nailing the get out point for Puts, the Transports chart shown above is helpful as it gives us a potential downside target at the lower boundary of its expanding downtrend channel.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment