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Gold - No Bottom Yet

I'll begin this week's commentary with a follow up on last week's Hybrid Lindsay forecast for a high in equities. Last week's commentary gave the details of the forecast for a high in the Dow on September 11 or very early last week. Equities pushed that forecast to the limit with last week's closing high on Wednesday followed by a decline of over 350 points. Short bounces notwithstanding, it seems reasonable to assume Wednesday was the high I was looking for.

Gold gained $34.60/oz. last week to close at $1,138.10 just below the 89-dma. Cycles point to a high late this week followed by a pullback into the first week of October but an important high is also due in October.

Gold moves inversely to the Dollar and I still expect one more rally to a new high by DXY. A triangle forecasts a decline in gold to $1,000 and a 4yr cycle low is not due until the first half of 2016 keeping the long-term outlook bearish.

Inflation expectations (chart) are not supportive of higher gold prices.

5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

 


Get your copy of the September Lindsay Report at Seattle Technical Advisors.com.

 

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