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This aging bull market may…

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It's All Downhill From Here

Well, down anyway. An emissions scandal at VW (the world's largest auto maker), the announcement from Caterpillar that it is laying off 10,000 workers, a 5,000% price increase in a 62-year-old drug, the resignation of the US Speaker of the House, and Janet Yellen reaffirming a rate hike before the end of the year... what's not to be bullish about?!

I find no reason to expect anything more than a slight hesitation in the decline which began two weeks ago until early next week, Oct 5/6. Oct 5 is exciting as it would be the first low forecast with the Hybrid Lindsay model centered on the bull market high (5/19/15). The intermediate lows of the 1929-1932 bear market were all forecast using this model centered on the bull market high in September 1929. A low on Oct. 5/6 is also forecast with a Middle Section centered on the high of the previous Basic Cycle, 5/2/11.

A break of 1,850-SPX opens the door for a return to the Jan'14 low near 1,750 which corresponds to the measured move from the bearish pennant formation.

S&P 500 Index
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