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Rate Hike Odds For March 2016, Fall Below 50%; GDP Forecast Slips to 0.9%

3rd Quarter GDP Forecast Slips to 0.9%

Following today's retail and business sales reports, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast for third quarter GDP slipped 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%.

Evolution of Atlanta Fed GDPNow real GDP forecast for 2015: Q3
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Evolution of Rate Hike Odds

I don't think the Fed will hike this year and neither does the market. In fact, the market now thinks the Fed will not hike in March.

Evolution of Rate Hike Odds
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The above chart created with numbers from CME FedWatch.

Hike adds for March are now down to 47.6%. In fact, going all the way out to July 2016, the Fed Fund Future sits at 99.645 implying an interest rate of 0.355%.


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