• 17 mins Is Winter Coming For HBO?
  • 6 hours Rise Of EVs Signals Peak Gasoline
  • 1 day Jeff Bezos Doubles Down On Space Colonization Ambitions
  • 1 day Gold Mining Stocks Stuck In Limbo
  • 2 days Executive Order Targets Huawei Over Espionage
  • 2 days Why Now May Be The Best Time Ever To Hold Gold
  • 3 days Fake News Sinks Shares In UK-Based Bank
  • 3 days De Beers To Build $468 Million Diamond Recovery Ship
  • 3 days Moody's: Turkey Faces Possible Credit Downgrade
  • 3 days Tesla's Solar Sales Are Slipping
  • 4 days Auto Industry To Get Temporary Tariff Relief
  • 4 days Welcome To The World’s Biggest Free Trade Area
  • 4 days Central Banks Are Stockpiling Gold At The Fastest Rate In Half A Decade
  • 4 days U.S.-China Impasse Threatens Rare Earth Trade
  • 5 days Wall Street Bears $1 Trillion Brunt Of Trade War
  • 5 days Mobile Sports Betting Isn’t Quite Minting Millionaires Just Yet
  • 5 days The Marijuana Industry’s Shocking Secret
  • 5 days A Generational Shift Is Quietly Unfolding In The Mining Industry
  • 6 days Pentagon To Pay $6 Billion To Help Build Border Wall
  • 6 days Beijing Backlash: Stocks Slammed, Gold Boosted
Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

How Millennials Are Reshaping Real Estate

The real estate market is…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

3rd Quarter Advance GDP Estimate +1.5%; December Hike Odds Up to 46.5%

The third quarter advance (initial) GDP estimate came in at 1.5% a bit under the Econoday Consensus of 1.7%, a bit over the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast of 1.1%, and well below the Blue Chip consensus of 2.1%.

Steady domestic spending helped to prop up GDP growth in the third-quarter which came in at an annualized 1.5 percent, just shy of expectations. Final sales rose a very respectable 3.0 percent in the quarter in a gain that points to underlying momentum for the fourth quarter. Both residential and nonresidential investment slowed in the third quarter with both net exports and especially inventories also pulling down GDP. The price index came in a little lower than expected at plus 1.2 percent.

Personal consumption expenditures slowed 4 tenths but are still a major highlight at a plus 3.2 percent rate. Service spending, an area insulated from global factors, continues to show solid resilience. But it was spending on durables, including vehicles, that was the strongest consumer category in the quarter. Government purchases, another area of domestic-centered spending, also contributed to the quarter's growth.

The quarter's 1.5 percent rate is only 2 tenths lower than the average growth of the prior four quarters and comes against a difficult 3.9 percent comparison in the second quarter. Not a great result but not bad either.


Final GDPNow Forecast for 3rd Quarter

Final GDPNow Forecast for 3rd Quarter


December Hike Odds Up to 46.5%

This is a muddling along estimate, signifying nothing has changed. In light of the Fed's complete reversal yesterday, muddling through was enough to send the CME Fedwatch December rate hike odds to 46.5%.

December Hike Odds Up to 46.5%

For discussion of the Fed's complete reversal yesterday to a much more hawkish viewpoint, please see Fed Drops Risk Warnings, Opens Door for December Hike: Who's the Fed Fooling? You, the Bond Market or Itself?

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment