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Elliott Wave Analysis of SPX

Originally posted on 29/11/2015.

I decided to switch ideas, although I am happy to switch back should we see a solid break under 2019SPX, the lack of downside is supporting the market is most likely in wave 5 and not still in wave 4, initially I was looking for a decline to either 1900SPX for wave [C] of a triangle or even 1850SPX for wave [C] of a flat pattern to end wave 4 on the weekly charts. But the reluctance to break down a few weeks back is strongly suggesting it's most likely in wave 5 and further more it could well be inside in wave [5] of 5 as shown.

S&P500 Daily Chart
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Short term it's a bit messy around the Aug 2015 lows, but I have found a way to count it, so if the market is actually in wave 5 (the only issue is the NIK225, USDJPY and DAX look out of sync with this idea) Then I favor its still inside wave [4] as a possible triangle, but if fails to move under 2055-60SPX, then any dip could be a [c] wave of wave 2 for a flat pattern, if however we see a 3 wave move from 2019SPX and a small spike into the 2100 - 2110SPX area, then a swift reversal back below 2100SPX and remains below 2100SPX, then it can still suggest its inside wave [4] and possibly decline towards 2040SPX for wave C of a triangle. There are a few options and until I get some more price action I don't have a clear idea, but I can say that staying above 2019SPX is supporting the idea it's in wave 5 of the weekly wave count, so should see more upside regardless if its inside wave [4] of 5 or now in wave [5] of 5.

S&P500 Weekly Elliott Wave Chart
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If it actually fails to move above 2116SPX it could still support more downside and even a possible break under 2019SPX which would bring the previous ideas we were working and a decline towards 1900SPX for wave [C] of a larger triangle into play, but as long as its above 2019SPX the bulls are firmly in charge on the weekly charts...

Alt idea

S&P500 Alternate Weekly Elliott Wave Chart
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