The S&P 500 is doing almost identically what it did last year: an important top the Friday after Thanksgiving (Dec 4), a rejection of the 20 day moving average the Thursday after that (Dec 10) and a large down day on the following Friday (Dec 11). We had the negative Mars square Pluto Dec 6 translating the really negative Mars opposite Uranus Dec 10 last week. The culmination of the low should occur late Tuesday Dec 15 when Uranus/square Pluto loses its hard aspect on the markets and tax selling is complete.
Monday sees the 8 TD top from early Dec 2, so a gap up by perhaps 16 SPX points to around 2028/29 may be in the cards. Monday has the Sun square Jupiter, so expect wild swings both up and down. I suspect we end down near 1988 Monday. Another gap up Tuesday to near 2026 should end badly Tuesday to near 1975 based on the past.
GDX looks like it is forming a bear flag on the charts near 14.62 Monday and will likely fall into Tuesday to under 14.00 (13.67). We should see a powerful rally on GDX into OPEX Friday, but more selling after OPEX.
The nasty astro of Mars opposing Uranus did not produce another terrorist attack (thank heaven), but did affect the mass psychology of the markets, especially oil. All of December is still under the influence of Mars in Libra and the Uranus/Pluto square influences until Dec 15. If we can get through this month without more attacks, the next window doesn't come to the fruition until April 2016. Men still have free will despite the astro influences. It is really up to us.
The stock market should see a powerful rally from Dec 16-28 to above 2104 SPX then year-end selling into early January. There is a TLC low due January 5th, so de ja vu ala last year, only the swings this coming year should be a little more intense. It looks like more distribution topping over the months of March-August with a good February rally to probable, slight new highs is in the cards.
The stock market is biding its time, basically going nowhere. The traders will still have the advantage next year until another drop in the summer/fall likely will be the launch point out of this commodity lead deflation to a more inflationary environment. This will be good for gold and especially silver. The effect of higher inflation should initially be good for the stock market going into 2017/18, but the set up is there for a huge collapse going into 2020 and the beginning of what I believe will be WWIII.
Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info
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