• 145 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 150 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 152 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 155 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 155 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 156 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 158 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 158 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 162 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 162 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 163 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 165 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 166 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 169 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 170 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 170 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 172 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  • 173 days Europe’s Economy Is On The Brink As Putin’s War Escalates
  • 176 days What’s Causing Inflation In The United States?
  • 177 days Intel Joins Russian Exodus as Chip Shortage Digs In
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Technical Market Report for December 19, 2015

The good news is:
• It looks like traders closed out their positions Friday ahead of a 2 week vacation. Nearly 10 billion shares were traded on Friday. Seasonally the 4 trading days before Christmas during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle, the NASDAQ composite (OTC) has not had a down year since 1967 and the S&P 500 (SPX) has not had a down year since 1979.


The negatives

On average the market sells off into middle-late December then rallies for the rest of the month on low volume. So far the sell off has lasted 1 day longer than average, but that coincided with the end of the week before Christmas. Nothing surprising. The huge volume on Friday suggests positions were cleared prior to a vacation. All of this suggests the extremely negative breadth of the recent past was just part of the seasonal pattern.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator, the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level.

NY HL Ratio at 13% is at an extreme, but, if you are a determined optimist, you can see a non confirmation in the past week.

NY HL Ratio Chart

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated from NASDAQ data.

The non confirmation is also visible in this chart.

OTC HL Ratio Chart


The positives

The overriding positive is Seasonality, but, for the past week there have been breadth non confirmations. Typically I would be cautious as the improvement might be called going from worse to bad, but this is happening at a seasonal shift point.

Advance - decline lines (ADL) are running totals of declining issues subtracted from advancing issues. Their characteristics vary and change and it is changes we look for to give us hints as to what is going to happen.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and an AD line calculated from NASDAQ data, OTC ADL in green.

The OTC ADL has been weak for the duration of this chart, but, for the past week it has hinted at strength.

OTC ADL Chart

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NYSE ADL has been calculated from NYSE data.

The NYSE ADL has been stronger than the OTC ADL and the non confirmation of the past week is easier to spot.

NYSE ADL Chart


Seasonality

Next week includes the 4 trading days prior to Christmas during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2014 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2014 There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.

Average returns for the coming week have been strong by all measures and stronger during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle than other periods.

The OTC has not had a down year during this period since 1967 and the SPX has not had a down year since 1979.

Report for the 4 days before Christmas.
The number following the year represents its position in the Presidential Cycle.
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.

OTC Presidential Year 3
  Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1963-3 0.09% 4 -0.37% 5 -0.14% 1 -0.46% 2 -0.88%
1967-3 -0.49% 2 -0.35% 3 -0.65% 4 -0.25% 5 -1.74%
1971-3 0.89% 1 0.21% 2 0.21% 3 -0.03% 4 1.28%
 
1975-3 -0.20% 5 -0.43% 1 0.38% 2 0.65% 3 0.40%
1979-3 -0.05% 3 0.41% 4 -0.07% 5 -0.13% 1 0.17%
1983-3 -0.39% 2 0.41% 3 0.21% 4 0.12% 5 0.35%
1987-3 0.54% 1 -0.42% 2 1.28% 3 0.52% 4 1.91%
1991-3 -0.98% 4 0.23% 5 1.52% 1 1.04% 2 1.81%
Avg -0.22% 0.04% 0.66% 0.44% 0.93%
 
1995-3 2.37% 2 -0.11% 3 1.49% 4 0.61% 5 4.36%
1999-3 0.82% 1 3.36% 2 0.67% 3 0.82% 4 5.67%
2003-3 -0.26% 5 0.25% 1 0.97% 2 -0.28% 3 0.67%
2007-3 0.19% 3 1.53% 4 1.94% 5 0.80% 1 4.46%
2011-3 3.19% 2 -0.99% 3 0.83% 4 0.74% 5 3.78%
Avg 1.26% 0.81% 1.18% 0.54% 3.79%
 
OTC summary for Presidential Year 3 1963 - 2011
Averages 0.44% 0.29% 0.66% 0.32% 1.71%
%Winners 54% 54% 77% 62% 85%
MDD 12/22/1967 1.73% -- 12/21/2011 .99% -- 12/19/1991 .98%
 
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2014
Averages 0.09% -0.05% 0.26% 0.30% 0.60%
%Winners 49% 58% 65% 65% 65%
 
SPX Presidential Year 3
  Day4 Day3 Day2 Day1 Totals
1955-3 -0.16% 2 0.87% 3 0.15% 4 0.20% 5 1.06%
1959-3 0.17% 1 -0.17% 2 -0.30% 3 0.07% 4 -0.24%
1963-3 -0.31% 4 -0.16% 5 -0.63% 1 0.22% 2 -0.89%
1967-3 -0.15% 2 0.55% 3 0.24% 4 -0.19% 5 0.45%
1971-3 1.29% 1 0.25% 2 -0.61% 3 -0.43% 4 0.49%
Avg 0.17% 0.27% -0.23% -0.03% 0.18%
 
1975-3 -0.70% 5 -0.74% 1 0.67% 2 0.82% 3 0.04%
1979-3 -0.09% 3 0.06% 4 -0.62% 5 0.07% 1 -0.59%
1983-3 -0.20% 2 0.96% 3 -0.18% 4 -0.03% 5 0.56%
1987-3 0.15% 1 0.16% 2 1.28% 3 -0.45% 4 1.15%
1991-3 -0.25% 4 1.18% 5 2.53% 1 0.63% 2 4.09%
Avg -0.22% 0.32% 0.74% 0.21% 1.05%
 
1995-3 0.84% 2 -0.98% 3 0.75% 4 0.24% 5 0.85%
1999-3 -0.21% 1 1.09% 2 0.17% 3 1.56% 4 2.61%
2003-3 -0.05% 5 0.39% 1 0.28% 2 -0.18% 3 0.45%
2007-3 -0.14% 3 0.49% 4 1.67% 5 0.81% 1 2.83%
2011-3 2.98% 2 0.19% 3 0.83% 4 0.90% 5 4.91%
Avg 0.69% 0.24% 0.74% 0.67% 2.33%
 
SPX summary for Presidential Year 3 1955 - 2011
Averages 0.21% 0.28% 0.42% 0.28% 1.19%
%Winners 33% 73% 67% 67% 80%
MDD 12/22/1975 1.44% -- 12/23/1963 1.10% -- 12/23/1971 1.04%
 
SPX summary for all years 1952 - 2014
Averages 0.08% 0.09% -0.01% 0.27% 0.43%
%Winners 44% 59% 50% 68% 63%


Money supply (M2)

The money supply chart was provided by Gordon Harms. Money supply continued its collapse along with the equity market.

M2 Money Supply and SPX Charts


Conclusion

The market is oversold giving us a perfect setup for the seasonally strong period that runs to the end of the year.

I expect the major averages to be higher on Thursday December 24 than they were on Friday December 18.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends. They can sign up at: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/signup.html. If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

These reports are archived at: http://www.safehaven.com/

Good Luck,

YTD W 20 / L 16 / T 14

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment