• 512 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 512 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 514 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 913 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 918 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 920 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 923 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 924 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 924 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 926 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 926 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 930 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 931 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 931 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 934 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 934 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 937 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 938 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 938 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 940 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Canadian Edition

Along with the currencies of most other commodity-exporting countries, the Canadian dollar has been in near-freefall lately.

USD per 1 CAD

Gold, meanwhile, has been sucked down with the rest of the commodities complex, falling hard since 2013. But only in US dollars. For Canadians, with their weak domestic currency, gold has been behaving just fine. It's up 17% in C$ terms over the past two years and looks ready to rally from here:

2-Year Gold Price in CAD/oz

Protection from currency trouble is why people own it, and why in the vast majority of places it's owners are very happy.

Now combine a falling currency with a crashing oil price and the result is a surprisingly favorable environment for Canadian and other weak-currency-country gold miners. Big mostly-Canadian miner Goldcorp, for instance, has seen its production costs fall by almost 20% in USD terms in the past two years, with more to come based on the subsequent cheapening of the diesel fuel required to run its equipment.

Goldcorp AISC 2014-2015

If 2016 plays out according to the script that has rising US interest rates producing an even stronger dollar (and correspondingly weaker currencies elsewhere) the terms of trade for non-US gold miners should become even more favorable. Many of them will report positive earnings comparisons while most other industries are doing the opposite, putting them on the radar screens of momentum traders and value investors who haven't been paying attention since the last gold/USD bull market ended.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment