Last week, I was looking for a nasty down week in the stock market, but up in GDX, GLD and NUGT into Jan 7th. GDX made a sudden reversal down on Jan 8th and is likely confined within a slight downward trend within an upwardly tilted bull flag until around Jan 21st. The stock market has either already bottomed or likely to do so no later than mid Monday Jan 11th.
Overall, I think we are in the early stages of a bear market that could take the SPX down to near 1000 or slightly lower by October. We are in year 8 of the commodity cycle low (last seen 2008, 2000, 1992, 1984, and 1976).
Astro-wise, the negative aspects of last week are leading us to a more favorable pattern this next week. We have a set of positive trines due between Jan 12-14, with a Bradley, solunar/CC turn due Jan 13-14. Cycle-wise, the 4/8/16 TD low was due mid Friday +/- one TD. Any possible further downside on Monday should be contained to a mid-session or early reversal time frame.
There is overhead resistance around 1985-93 SPX and we could go down to 1910 Monday before reversing. A break of 1910 +/- 3, would suggest a move down to test 1867. We could also rally from the get go Monday. The gold stocks and technical indicators are not suggesting a meltdown like August 24 on Monday, but with Mercury retrograde anything is possible.
The market is now clearly in a trade up and down, or put your money in the bank mode. Bear market swings can get wild with huge sell-offs as well as huge short covering gains. We seek to capture some of those gains trading the 3X ETF's and have done well doing that over the past year. All of our signals are tracked via Collective 2 and our verified results may be seen at our web site.
Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years. The subscription website is www.blustarmarkettimer.info
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