USDJPY is falling sharply and very aggressively towards the levels of August of 2015, but it's still too soon to confirm if wave four will be a triangle or a flat. It can be both as long as wave A) holds, but we still think that sooner or later bears will slow down and that price will rally in three legs; either from here or from around 114.00. So for now, trend is still down, but key for bulls will be a bullish reversal in five waves on lower time frames. Only then we can start looking immediately higher again.

USDJPY, Daily

On the lower time frame, USDJPY reached new lows this week after a completed wave 4, so pair might be forming a bottom if we consider recent bounce with more than 200 pips from the low. That said, we would not be surprised if pair will continue higher, at least with three legs of recovery, specifically if stocks will hold lows that were made earlier this week. However, even if USDJPY is bottoming it still can be a little too soon for confirmation; we want an overlap with 120.32 before significant low can be locked-in.

USDJPY, 4H

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