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The State of the Trend

The bounce we were expecting a couple of weeks ago arrived on schedule and marked exactly the half-way point (price and time wise) of the December '15 - January '16 down swing. From the January 20th swing low the SP500 has advanced 270 degrees up just like it did in August and September '15, and is trading below resistance at 1947. February 1st is a short-term CIT date and we expect a sideways/down move to follow:

S&P500 Daily Chart

As long as the index doesn't retreat below 1880, and the 1 x 1 angle from the January swing low, it will remain in a strong position and the current upswing is likely to continue.

Looking at the long-term cycles, we find an interesting phenomenon occurring during the first week of March: two different cycles, connecting weekly swing highs and lows, converge in that week and, in our estimation, should produce an important CIT.

S&P500 Weekly Chart

Currently, there are two obvious price targets for that period: 2040 to the upside, and 1820 to the downside.


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