• 20 hours The Year Of The Retail Investor Keeps Getting Bigger
  • 2 days Airlines Could Recover, But Crew Remain Elusive
  • 2 days Meet The Man Behind The World's Most Exciting Oil Play
  • 3 days Crypto-Mining Immigration Could Be The Start Of A New Trend
  • 5 days Hawkish Fed Sends Gold Prices Crashing
  • 6 days Bezos Is Heading To Space This Sunday
  • 9 days El Salvador’s Surprise Bitcoin Move
  • 12 days Markets Unfazed As Inflation Hits 13-Year High
  • 13 days How the Token Economy is Disrupting Financial Markets
  • 15 days FBI Investigating 100 Types Of Ransomware Attacks
  • 17 days Fed Ends Corporate Credit Emergency Lending Program
  • 19 days AMC Becomes the Latest Winning Meme Stock After GameStop
  • 20 days The Real Reason Your 401k Has Been Lagging
  • 21 days China Lifts Cap On Births, Allows Three Children Per Couple
  • 23 days The Market Is Ripe For Another GameStop Saga
  • 26 days Senate Grills Big Banks Over Pandemic Opportunism
  • 27 days Cannabis Has A Major Cash Problem
  • 28 days Ransomware Netted Criminals $350M In 2020 Alone
  • 29 days Russia Is Taking On Google
  • 30 days Chinese Regulators Deal Another Big Blow To Bitcoin
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

TheWaveTrading

My goal is to establish the most likely path that the price of a particular asset will undertake and profit through ETF instruments both on…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Oil: Dicey Pattern

Monthly time frame:

  • Oil must reclaim the 2009 low must be reclaimed in order to at least allow an oversold rebound
  • Below the 2009 low we have 2 support areas at 24.44 and 17.18 prior to the 1986 low at 9.75

Crude Oil Monthly Chart
Larger Image

  • In the following monthly chart we can see that maybe Oil is forming a "Bullish" Falling Wedge
  • If the 10 mma = 44.86 is reclaimed then the trend could shift from bearish to bullish

Crude Oil Monthly Chart 2
Larger Image

Weekly time frame (March future contract):

  • Within the suggested wedge of the monthly time frame (Blue converging trend lines) there is a smaller one (Black converging trend lines)
  • The pattern of the smaller wedge is quite tight hence a resolution should be imminent
  • If the resolution is bullish I would expect a sharp move to the upside
  • Above the upper black trend line we have R1 (10 wma) at 35,72; R2 (Blue upper trend line and 20 wma) at 41.46 then R3 (50 wma) at 50.45
  • If the resolution is bearish we shall see if the lower trend lines hold

Crude Oil Weekly Chart
Larger Image

  • Weekly oscillators are displaying a positive divergence of the RSI and MACD but a bullish signal cross of the MACD is needed in order to increase the odds of a tradable bottom

Crude Oil Weekly Momentum Chart
Larger Image

Daily time frame:

  • At first sight it looks like the January 3-wave up leg is a failure. Price has been rejected three times by the upper converging trend line and last Friday price has dropped back below the 10 dma and the 20 dma.
  • The pattern is certainly dicey
  • Now we have to pay attention to the trend line that connects the January 26 and February 3 lows. If the trend line holds a break out of the wedge would be possible while if it does not hold Oil will probably establish another lower low

Crude Oil Daily Chart
Larger Image

  • Daily oscillators are poised for higher prices ahead if the RSI(14) reclaims the 50 line given the MACD bullish signal cross.

Crude Oil Daily Momentum Chart
Larger Image

60 minute time frame:

  • Above I mentioned the critical significance of the trend line that connects the January 26 and February 3 lows. This trend line can belong to a bearish or a bullish pattern:

a) Bearish Pattern: Head & Shoulder with a measured target at 24

Crude Oil 60-Minute Chart
Larger Image

b) Bullish Pattern: Triangle with a measured target at 38

Crude Oil 60-Minute Triangle Chart
Larger Image

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment