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The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

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30-Year Treasury Bond: The Investor Shelter

Monthly time frame:

  • The trend is clearly bullish but we should consider that the 30 yr Treasury Bond from 2009 has begun rising within the boundaries of two converging trend lines, which takes the form of a Rising Wedge (Potential reversal pattern.
  • It is impossible to know if the Rising Wedge is done, the 10 mma is far off, but an end of month print below the January high at 167 should at least open the door to a pullback

30-Year Treasury Monthly Chart
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  • Monthly oscillators are mixed with negative divergence of both the RSI and Stochastic but the MACD remains with a bullish signal cross in force

30-Year Treasury Monthly Momentum Chart
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Weekly time frame:

  • We can make the case that the current up leg is a thrust following a Triangle and the measured target has been fulfilled. A bullish Triangle always precede the last up leg of a pattern: wave 4 of an impulsive structure, wave B of a Zig Zag or wave X of a Double Zig Zag. Since it is not impulsive then if a top is not in place price might have completed the wave (A) of a Zig Zag.

30-Year Treasury Weekly Chart
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  • Weekly oscillators also are flashing mixed signal, with negative divergences but also with a MACD bullish signal cross

30-Year Treasury Weekly Momentum Chart
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Daily time frame:

  • Today's Shooting Star is a sign of a potential top.
  • I am not saying that the 30 yr Treasury Bond is going to fall apart but if the January high is breached (price: 167) then odds should favor at least a pullback at the 0.382- 0.5 retracement of the up leg which followed the completed Triangle.
  • A pullback of the 30yr Treasury Bond will coincide with a rebound of the equity market. Flow out of the shelter into equity

30-Year Treasury Daily Chart
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  • Daily oscillators are clearly on the bullish side but the RSI(14) is extremely overbought, hence odds should favor a pullback, however the absence of negative divergence of the OBV is suggesting that the odds of a major reversal are slim

30-Year Treasury Daily Momentum Chart
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