• 1,035 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 1,035 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 1,037 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,437 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,442 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,444 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,447 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,447 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,448 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,450 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,450 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,454 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,454 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,455 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,457 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,458 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,461 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,462 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,462 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,464 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Here We Go Again: Government Ramps Up Borrowing As Private Sector Slows

This morning, US existing home sales plunged and the Chicago Fed's national activity index turned negative. Both are obvious signs of a slowing economy.

Anticipating this kind of news, Credit Bubble Bulletin's Doug Noland in his most recent column analyzed the Federal Reserve's quarterly Z.1 Report for signs of changing financial trends, and found something potentially serious. The following three charts tell the tale:

First, corporate borrowing slowed dramatically in 2015's fourth quarter...

Change in US Corporate Borrowing

...while households scaled back their mortgage borrowing:

Change in Mortgage Borrowing

And guess who stepped in to save the credit bubble? That's right. Federal government borrowing soared:

Change n Federal Government Borrowing

Writes Noland: "This more than offset the private-sector slowdown, ensuring that overall Non-Financial Debt growth accelerated to an 8.6% pace in Q4."

In other words, monetary policy (QE and low/negative interest rates) has stopped working and now we're reverting to deficit spending to juice the economy. If this is the beginning of a trend, expect to see a torrent of announcements in coming months touting new government programs on infrastructure, health care and/or the military.

It's as if the people making these decisions have forgotten that 1) the world borrowed $57 trillion post-2008 and got next to nothing for it and 2) the new debt will have to be rolled over at higher rates if interest rates are ever to be normalized, thus decimating government finances. For more on the implications of this latest iteration of the Money Bubble, see Is This The Debt Jubilee?

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment