• 556 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 557 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 558 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 958 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 963 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 965 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 968 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 968 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 969 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 971 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 971 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 975 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 975 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 976 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 978 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 979 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 982 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 983 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 983 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 985 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Love the Smell of Bazookas in the Spring

Of course, "Bazooka" has been a term used by the establishment to describe extraordinary easing by a senior central bank. The actual term dates back to World War II when it described a shoulder-held anti-tank rocket launcher.

It was very effective as a weapon, but as a tool of monetary policy it seems to work only in the spring of the year. And definitely not in the fall.

Credit markets reversed to adversity in May-June 2007. The first casualty, Bear Stearns, was discovered early in that fateful month and the Fed hyped up massive easing. So far as any researcher can determine this continued though the 2008 Crash.

The record by the establishment touches the absurd.

In December 2007, which was the start of the worst contraction since the 1930s, a highly regarded economist boasted that nothing could go wrong. The Fed had a "dream team" of economists. Less than two years later, the establishment was boasting that without their massive efforts the contraction would have lasted longer.

Those that said a contraction was impossible then boasted that it would have been worse. It reveals a culture without the ability of self-criticism.

Similar examples exist as the 1929 and 1873 Bubbles collapsed.

The seasonality of severe contractions is that they happen in the fall. That's on evidence back to the horrors of 1346.

Outstanding buying frenzies have occurred in the spring of the year. This makes artificial and arbitrary easing look effective.

The Netherlands became world's financial center in the 1500s and Dutch traders had very descriptive terms. "Easy" credit is always followed by "Diseased" credit.

Another phase of the latter began in June 2015 and the relief since February has been outstanding.

Indeed, as Bank of America reported last week, retail buying of High-Yield reached "largest ever for a 4-week span for the asset class". $11.2 billion worth of junk seems like a buying frenzy.

Global HY Flows

In the "Sensational Season" what's next?

A buying frenzy at this time of year can expire soon. JNK and HYG have accomplished impressive swings from oversold to overbought. Last week's Special on Municipals noted a number of technical excesses.

Lower-grade bonds have generated a good return and are now vulnerable.

Perhaps the Bazookas have expended their seasonal supply of ammunition?

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment