• 1 day Low Prices Plague Beleaguered Lithium Miners
  • 2 days Is This The Big Biotech Bust?
  • 2 days Funding Is The Biggest Hurdle For Clean Energy
  • 3 days Walmart Reaches Out To Chilean Government For Protection
  • 3 days The Most Exciting Gold Find Of The Decade
  • 3 days Mining Boom Sparks Deforestation Concerns
  • 4 days The Cannabis Culling Has Wall Street Disappointed
  • 4 days Vigilante Offers $100,000 Bounty To Hack Banks
  • 5 days The Dairy Industry Is Dying
  • 5 days The Most Impressive Electric Vehicle Of The Year
  • 6 days Gold Miners Are Having A Stellar Second Half
  • 7 days How 3D Printing Is Turning Each And Every Industry On Its Head
  • 7 days Is The $3.5 Trillion Healthcare Industry About To Get Much More Transparent?
  • 8 days Gamblers Are Betting Big On Trump’s Impeachment
  • 8 days Even Banks Can't Answer Aramco's Trillion Dollar Question
  • 9 days Will Bezos Buy The Seattle Seahawks?
  • 9 days 6 Tech Trends Transforming The Travel Industry
  • 10 days Ousted Uber CEO Cashes Out $500 Million In Stock
  • 10 days Trump Prepares For Another Key Tariff Decision
  • 10 days The Free Money Bubble Is About To Burst
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Sufficient Momentum (For aRecession)

In the wake of huge plunge in wholesale inventories that still left the inventory-to-sales ratio in the stratosphere, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model plunged to +0.1%

Latest forecast: 0.1 percent -- April 8, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.1 percent on April 8, down from 0.4 percent on April 5. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.4 percentage points to -0.7 percentage points.

GDPNow

There's momentum all right. And it's hugely negative.

Today's wholesale sales report added to the string of very poor economic reports. For my take, please see Wholesale Inventories Crash, Led by Autos.

Next week, retail sales and industrial production reports come out. If those reports are bad, GDP will head negative. At this point, even minor backward revisions can tip things negative.

If auto sales decline significantly or housing heads for the worse (both likely), recession it is, probably backdated to December 2015 or January 2016.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment