• 764 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 765 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 766 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,166 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,171 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,173 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,176 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,176 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,177 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,179 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,179 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,183 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,183 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,184 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,186 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,187 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,190 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,191 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,191 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,193 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Sufficient Momentum (For aRecession)

In the wake of huge plunge in wholesale inventories that still left the inventory-to-sales ratio in the stratosphere, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model plunged to +0.1%

Latest forecast: 0.1 percent -- April 8, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.1 percent on April 8, down from 0.4 percent on April 5. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.4 percentage points to -0.7 percentage points.

GDPNow

There's momentum all right. And it's hugely negative.

Today's wholesale sales report added to the string of very poor economic reports. For my take, please see Wholesale Inventories Crash, Led by Autos.

Next week, retail sales and industrial production reports come out. If those reports are bad, GDP will head negative. At this point, even minor backward revisions can tip things negative.

If auto sales decline significantly or housing heads for the worse (both likely), recession it is, probably backdated to December 2015 or January 2016.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment