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Dow Rally Almost Done

The Dow just keeps plugging higher but all good things must eventually end so let's review the daily chart to see where the good times are likely to end.


Dow Daily Chart

Dow Daily Chart

The Fibonacci fan show the move higher over the last couple of months has generally been contained within the 61.8% and 76.4% angles. It is only recently that price has started to drift away from the 61.8% angle indicating some weariness creeping into to the uptrend. Nevertheless, price to continues to climb the wall of worry.

So, where is this uptrend likely to terminate?

The horizontal line denotes the November 2015 high at 17977 and I believe price is set to make a false break top just above that level.

The low in January 2015 was a higher low and should price trade above the November 2015 high then it will be followed by a higher high. After that I expect a bold move back down that eventually sets up another higher low. As outlined in previous analysis, I am targeting around the 15700 level for that higher low.

The Bollinger Bands show price having one last lash at the upper band which should see price push further into this band before a reversal back down takes place.

The RSI looks likely to set up a triple bearish divergence on this next high. That often leads to a significant move down and that is certainly my expectation.

The MACD is currently marginally bullish but should set up a bearish divergence on the coming high.

So, a high appears imminent but, as far as I'm concerned, this is not the beginning of the next leg down in a big bear market. However, by the time the next higher low forms it will certainly feel like it.

 

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