• 700 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 700 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 702 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,102 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,106 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,108 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,111 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,112 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,113 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,114 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,115 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,118 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,119 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,120 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,122 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,122 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,125 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,126 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,126 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,128 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2%

Following today's retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.

The difference between the forecasts is now a whopping 1.6 percentage points.


Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Latest forecast: 2.8 percent -- May 13, 2016

GDPNow

"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on May 13, up from 2.2 percent on May 10. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent."


New York Fed Nowcast

NY FED Nowcast

"The FRBNY Staff Nowcast for GDP growth in 2016:Q2 remains moderate at 1.2%."

At least one of these is wildly off the mark.

Given the bond market's reaction to today's retail sales numbers, I suggest it's more likely GDPNow missed the mark.


Bond Market Reaction

Bond Yields

Bond yields rallied and gold was flat despite the fact the US dollar index rose 0.63%. Numbers as of 11:30 AM central.


Related Articles

The bond market does not think much of today's retail sales report, and neither do I.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment