• 21 hours $15,000 For Your Crypto’s Ticket To Visibility
  • 2 days The Next Fashion Frontier
  • 3 days What Is Africa’s Role In The New Silk Road?
  • 4 days Trump Was Right About The Dollar
  • 4 days Is Silver Gearing Up For A Rally?
  • 4 days World’s Largest Hedge Fund Turns Bullish On Gold
  • 4 days It’s Time To Spend More On Clean Energy R&D
  • 5 days Contrarian Investors Are Beating The Stock Market
  • 5 days Bulgaria’s Revenue Agency Falls Victim To Biggest Cyber Heist In History
  • 5 days Amazon Faces European Union Anti-Trust Probe
  • 5 days Commodities Are Having A Stellar Year
  • 6 days Bezos’ Next Big Project Could Be Worth $100 Billion Per Year
  • 6 days 3,600 Years Later, Climate Change Turns Mammoths Into $40M Market
  • 6 days Tesla, Apple Claim China Is Stealing Intellectual Property
  • 6 days EV Giants Duke It Out For Battery Dominance
  • 7 days Tech Billionaire Takes Aim At Google
  • 7 days Chinese Police Bust Largest Ever Illicit Crypto Mining Operation
  • 7 days Expect A Pullback Before Gold's Next Major Rally
  • 7 days Why Interest On Gold Matters
  • 8 days Ten Extravagant Food Items For The Wealthy Only
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Atlanta Fed GDPNow +2.8% vs. New York Fed Nowcast +1.2%

Following today's retail sales alleged blowout, to which treasury yields actually declined, comes a big GDP upgrade by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model vs. a smaller jump by the New York Fed Nowcast Model.

The difference between the forecasts is now a whopping 1.6 percentage points.


Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Latest forecast: 2.8 percent -- May 13, 2016

GDPNow

"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on May 13, up from 2.2 percent on May 10. After this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for second-quarter real consumer spending growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent."


New York Fed Nowcast

NY FED Nowcast

"The FRBNY Staff Nowcast for GDP growth in 2016:Q2 remains moderate at 1.2%."

At least one of these is wildly off the mark.

Given the bond market's reaction to today's retail sales numbers, I suggest it's more likely GDPNow missed the mark.


Bond Market Reaction

Bond Yields

Bond yields rallied and gold was flat despite the fact the US dollar index rose 0.63%. Numbers as of 11:30 AM central.


Related Articles

The bond market does not think much of today's retail sales report, and neither do I.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment