• 6 hours Wealthy Investors Have Been Fleeing Stocks Since April
  • 1 day Thorium Could Kickstart A New Nuclear Boom
  • 2 days Is A Massive Gold Rally On The Horizon?
  • 2 days Can Tesla Really Produce A $25,000 Self-Driving Electric Car?
  • 3 days Gold Miners Brace For Seasonal Downturn
  • 3 days The Silver Plunge Continues
  • 4 days 7 COVID Vaccine Stocks To Plan Upside Moves
  • 4 days Rhodium Climbs Reaches Record Highs
  • 5 days Tesla Tumbles After Battery Day Fails To Impress
  • 5 days Three Energy ETFs To Watch This Decade
  • 6 days What To Do With $2 Trillion In Suspicious Bank Transactions?
  • 7 days How The Stock Market Predicts Electoral Victory
  • 7 days Tesla's "Battery Day" Could Deal A Blow To Cobalt Miners
  • 8 days New TikTok Deal Hopes To Bypass National Security Concerns
  • 8 days Where Will Gold Go From Here?
  • 9 days COVID-19 Is Fueling A Pastic Waste Crisis
  • 9 days Gold Output Set To Decline
  • 10 days Uber And Lyft Look To Go Electric
  • 11 days COVID-19 Is Crushing Palladium Demand
  • 12 days This ‘Once-Boring’ Tech Company Is Now Super Hot
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

USDCAD Set To Resume Bear Rally

The USDCAD looks just about ready to head back up which will be the next leg of the bear rally that commenced in early May 2016. Let's check out the action using the weekly and daily charts.


USDCAD Weekly Chart

USD/CAD Weekly Chart

The horizontal line denotes the previous swing low set in October 2015 and we can see the recent low at 1.2461 breached that level thereby creating a lower low. I now believe price is tracing out a significant bear rally that still has plenty of time and price still to play out.

The Bollinger Bands show price has encountered some resistance around the middle band and has been sliding down with it over the past few weeks. I believe decision time is upon us and price will make a decision any day now to leave this middle band and head up to the upper band and beyond.

The PSAR indicator is bullish with the dots at 1.2723. This is my tight setting and these dots that represent support often act like a magnet for price and I expect the higher low to be right around the 1.2723 level. Considering it is my tight setting, it is quite possible price to stage a fake out move whereby price busts the dots before turning back up. It is really neither here nor there and today's low of 1.2732 has so far held this support.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the January 2016 high to recent low. It shows price finding resistance at the 38.2% angle and trading back down in tandem with this angle with the angle now looking more like it is providing support. I expect price to lift off this angle at any time now and surge higher.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the move down and I am targeting the final bear rally high to be at least up around the 61.8% level at 1.3839. The 76.4% level at 1.4165 is also worth considering.

The RSI showed a bullish divergence at the recent low and it looks to be building strength with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

The MACD indicator is bullish although the averages have come back together again and that is often the exact moment when a trend resumes.

Let's now look in a bit closer with the daily chart.


USDCAD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

The Bollinger Bands show price now pushing into the lower band and this should act like a rubber band once price decides to bounce back up, assuming it does of course.

I have drawn a Fibonacci Fan from the low to recent high and this shows price right around support from the 76.4% angle. It is this angle where I expect the pullback low to form.

I have added Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent move up and I am looking for a low to form around support from the 61.8% level at 1.2739. Today's low of 1.2732 has marginally clipped that level so I would suggest it is alert stations for the bulls!

I have added moving averages with time periods of 100 (red) and 200 (black) and these have recently made a bearish crossover which adds support that this current move is a bear rally only.

The RSI is back in oversold territory while the MACD indicator is bearish although that is coming off a nice move up.

So, we just await a low followed by an impulsive reversal back up and I believe that will occur at any time now. One to watch!

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment