• 745 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 746 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 747 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,147 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,152 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,154 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,157 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,157 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,158 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,160 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,160 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,164 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,164 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,165 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,167 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,168 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,171 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,172 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,172 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,174 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?

US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey.

The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession.

Is it different this time?

ISI Tax Survey versus Recessions

I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI.

I added the recession bars and comments.

Each month, Evercore conducts a State Tax Receipts Survey across 16 states capturing 64% of the US population.

Liz Ann Sonders Tweet

Unlike Sonders, I am not willing to state second GDP quarter will likely be up vs. first quarter.


Second Quarter GDP Estimates

  1. New York Fed Nowcast June 3: 2.4% New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I'll Take "The Under"); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?
  2. Atlanta Fed GDPNow June 1: 2.5% GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.5% Following Construction Report
  3. Markit June 3: 0.7% to 0.8% Composite PMI Flirts With Contraction; Markit Chief Economist Estimates GDP 0.7-0.8%
  4. ISM June 3: 1.6% Non-Manufacturing ISM Much Weaker Than Expected


Manufacturing Productivity

Manufacturing Productivity

For productivity discussion, please see Productivity Declines 0.6%, Labor Costs Rise 4.5%; What's Going On?


Recession?

Many things are outright screaming recession.

I expect huge revisions on numerous fronts. And I am not the only one.

For revision discussion, please see BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment