• 3 days How To Invest In The Cybersecurity Boom
  • 5 days Investors Are Patient With Unprofitable Giants
  • 7 days Wells Fargo Back In The Scandal Spotlight Once Again
  • 9 days 5 Stocks To Keep A Close Eye On This Year
  • 10 days As Auto Giants Flail, Look To Chip Stocks For Gains
  • 11 days Central America Is Ready For The Bitcoin Hustle
  • 13 days China’s Video Game Restrictions Unlikely To Slow Down Booming Industry
  • 14 days Top Performing Stocks As Inflation Fears Grow
  • 15 days US Airline Stocks Take A Beating On New EU Restrictions
  • 16 days This IPO Could Open Sustainable Fashion Floodgates
  • 17 days Crypto Crime Nets Another $2B Fraudster
  • 19 days This Week’s Hottest Meme Stocks
  • 20 days Why World Markets Should Be Watching Germany Closely
  • 22 days Could ‘Cultured’ Meat Rival The Plant-Based Megatrend?
  • 25 days ‘Easy Money’: Crypto Is Still Attracting Newbie Investors
  • 26 days Foreign Syndicates May Have Stolen Up To $400B In COVID Benefits
  • 27 days Gold Jumps Above $1800 Ahead Of Jackson Hole Summit
  • 27 days International Banks Blacklist Afghanistan Following Taliban Takeover
  • 29 days China’s Tycoons Are Getting A Serious Reality Check
  • 30 days U.S. Cannabis Space Heats Up With Telling Tilray Acquisition
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

US Tax Receipts Signaling Recession?

US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey.

The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession.

Is it different this time?

ISI Tax Survey versus Recessions

I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI.

I added the recession bars and comments.

Each month, Evercore conducts a State Tax Receipts Survey across 16 states capturing 64% of the US population.

Liz Ann Sonders Tweet

Unlike Sonders, I am not willing to state second GDP quarter will likely be up vs. first quarter.


Second Quarter GDP Estimates

  1. New York Fed Nowcast June 3: 2.4% New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I'll Take "The Under"); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?
  2. Atlanta Fed GDPNow June 1: 2.5% GDPNow Forecast Dips to 2.5% Following Construction Report
  3. Markit June 3: 0.7% to 0.8% Composite PMI Flirts With Contraction; Markit Chief Economist Estimates GDP 0.7-0.8%
  4. ISM June 3: 1.6% Non-Manufacturing ISM Much Weaker Than Expected


Manufacturing Productivity

Manufacturing Productivity

For productivity discussion, please see Productivity Declines 0.6%, Labor Costs Rise 4.5%; What's Going On?


Recession?

Many things are outright screaming recession.

I expect huge revisions on numerous fronts. And I am not the only one.

For revision discussion, please see BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment