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19 Point Lead for 'Leave' in Latest Brexit Poll is Nonsense: What's Really Happening?

Following news of a potentially flawed poll on Friday that shows a 10 point lead in favor of Brexit comes an even more incredible poll that allegedly shows a 19 point lead for Brexit.

The Sunday Express reports End of EU rule FINALLY in sight: Leave camp take 19-POINT lead as Britons flock to Brexit.

The Opinium Poll, commissioned by the Brexit-backing Bruges Group think tank, is further evidence that the Leave camp is gaining support and delivers the biggest margin of victory for Brexit so far, after giving voters the option of a choice of free trade agreements with the EU.

It found 52 per cent chose to leave the EU, with only 33 per cent choosing to keep the status quo.

Despite there being less than two weeks before the crucial referendum, on June 23, a further 15 per cent said they still didn't know.

Of those who voted to leave the majority, 39 per cent, said that Britain should have some sort of Free Trade Agreement with the EU, similar to the one currently enjoyed between the US, Canada and Mexico.

A further 13 per cent said they would accept the off-the-shelf-membership of EFTA, the European Free Trade Association with a single market.


Opinium Research

Opinion Research Tweets


Brexit Poll Tracker

The Financial Times' Brexit Tracker sees it like this.

Financial Times' Brexit Tracker


Debate Feud

For details of the debate feud, see Remain Team Turns Fire on Boris Johnson in EU Vote Debate.

David Cameron's allies rejoiced at the sight of Amber Rudd, energy secretary, trying to undermine the credibility of Mr Johnson, the talismanic leader of the campaign to take Britain out of the EU.

Ms Rudd, one of three female politicians representing the Remain side, claimed that Mr Johnson's case for leaving the EU was a "complete fantasy" and that "the only number Boris is interested in is Number 10."

Ms Rudd was joined by Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's first minister, and Angela Eagle, shadow business secretary, in mounting the co-ordinated attack on Mr Johnson and the "lies" told by the Leave campaign.

Mr Cameron promised last month at the G7 summit in Japan that he would cease "blue on blue" attacks against Tory colleagues but seems to have concluded that the best way to undermine the Leave side is to take out its frontman.

In the face of such hostility, Mr Johnson adopted an unfamiliar role as a restrained purveyor of "hard, cold, empirical fact", promising to rise above the "personal stuff" being deployed by his opponents.

His two Brexit colleagues -- Andrea Leadsom, energy minister, and Labour MP Gisela Stuart -- were low-key but quietly effective, as they set out on a mission to reassure voters that a Leave vote would not be "a leap in the dark".

Anecdotal surveys suggested the more restrained approach of Ms Leadsom and Ms Stuart appealed to viewers, although Ms Rudd also scored highly in an instant poll with readers of the Times Red Box. Some Conservative commentators said they thought Ms Rudd's attacks on Mr Johnson had gone too far.


Brexit Poll Trends

Brexit Poll Trends


List of Individual Polls

List of Individual Brexit Polls


Comments

  • The caption reads complete list of polls. I chopped it off at May 15.
  • Any polls before June are now not worth a dime, except for trend analysis.
  • Of the last 11 polls it's 7-4 in favor of leave, but three of the Leave votes were in May.
  • Of the June polls, its 4-4.
  • Of the two latest June polls it is 1-1, by 2 percentage points for Remain, and 1 percentage point for leave.
  • The latest three pools are overall strongly in favor of Leave but I am reluctant to put much weight behind polls with wild swings.


Too Close to Call

This is too close to call. I suggest the odds of remain are nowhere near the 76-24 split assigned by Matt Singh.

The undecideds have been strongly breaking for Brexit. That trend may or may not have stalled, but we need to see more results to know for sure.


Two Things

This will all come down to two things:

  1. How undecideds break
  2. Turnout

Right now, undecideds are breaking heavily towards Leave. That trend will have to continue to seal the fate, but there is no reason to believe it won't. Moreover, it appears fear-mongering is not helping the Remain camp at all.


History Lesson

Matt Singh, like Nate Silver before him in the US relies too much on history, in a political year with many surprises.

For further discussion, please see New Poll Shows Brexit With 10-Point Lead: Is it Flawed?

Finally, for those still on the fence, I offer the #1 Reason to Vote Brexit: Goldman Sachs, JPM, IMF Seek Remain.

 

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