In the Brexit battle, undecided voters are now strongly breaking into the Leave camp.
A new set of Guardian/ICM poll (one online and one telephone) shows Leave with a 6 point lead in each. The telephone poll is 53-47 with the percentage of undecided voters sinking to 6%.
This continues the trend I warned Matt Singh at Number Cruncher Politics about.
Singh does not dispute the numbers unlike other recent polls believed to be biased.
Leave is in the lead in a running average of the latest six polls and the latest four polls.
Please considerEU referendum: leave takes six-point lead in Guardian/ICM polls.
Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a pair of Guardian/ICM polls.
Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once "don't knows" are excluded, according to research conducted over the weekend, compared with a 52%-48% split reported by ICM a fortnight ago.
The figures will make grim reading for David Cameron, George Osborne and the Labour party. They follow a fortnight in which immigration became the dominant issue in the referendum campaign, with the publication of official figures showing that net migration had risen to a near-record 333,000 in 2015.
Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org noted that after the ICM data, the running average "poll of polls" would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position.
Leave in Lead
Poll of Polls
The Guardian had a bad link for Prof John Curtice's site. Here is the correct one: EU Referendum Poll of Polls.
The What UK Thinks: EU Poll of Polls is based on the average share of the vote for 'Leave' and 'Remain' in the six most recent polls of voting intentions in the EU Referendum.
The bar chart [above] shows the average of the six most recent polls, the fieldwork for which was conducted between 5 and 13 June 2016. It is based on two (online) polls from YouGov, two (one online, one phone) polls by ICM, one (online) poll by ORB, and one (online) poll by Opinium. The most recent additions are two polls, one online, one phone, conducted by ICM between 10 and 13 June.
The line graph below shows how the Poll of Polls has changed since polling based on the question that will appear on the ballot paper began in September 2015.
Fear Mongering Asininity
Taking fear mongering to a new, higher level of stupidity, European Council president Donald Tusk stated in a Bild Interview "This could in fact be the start of the process of destruction of not only the EU but also of the Western political civilization".
Jean-Claude Juncker Calls for EU Army
The surest way to go to war is to have an army itching to fight.
Please recall that European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker Calls for EU Army.
The European Union needs its own army to help address the problem that it is not "taken entirely seriously" as an international force, the president of the European commission has said.
Jean-Claude Juncker said such a move would help the EU to persuade Russia that it was serious about defending its values in the face of the threat posed by Moscow.
However, his proposal was immediately rejected by the British government, which said that there was "no prospect" of the UK agreeing to the creation of an EU army.
Excuse me for pointing out the obvious, but history shows the EU will do whatever it wants when it wants. Paper promises are not worth a damn.
Two Things
This will all come down to two things:
- How undecideds break
- Turnout
Right now, undecideds are breaking heavily towards Leave. That trend will have to continue to seal the fate, but there is no reason to believe it won't. Moreover, it appears fear-mongering is not helping the Remain camp at all.
Recent Polls
That is how I see things. While still too close to call, things are breaking strongly for Leave. And right now, Leave is in the lead, by any reasonable slice of recent polls.
History Lesson
Matt Singh, like Nate Silver before him in the US, relies too much on history, in a political year with many surprises.
For further discussion, please see New Poll Shows Brexit With 10-Point Lead: Is it Flawed?
Finally, for those still on the fence, I offer the #1 Reason to Vote Brexit: Goldman Sachs, JPM, IMF Seek Remain.
