• 694 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 694 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 696 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,096 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,101 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,103 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,106 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,106 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,107 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,108 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,109 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,113 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,113 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,114 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,116 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,117 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,120 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,121 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,121 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,123 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

US Recession Odds Hit 55% According to Deutsche Bank Model

A Deutsche Bank yield curve model says the odds of a US recession are now 55%. Specifically, the model notes the flattening of the yield curve, something I have mentioned numerous times recently.

Bloomberg reports U.S. Recession Odds Climb to 55% as Yield Curve Flattens.


Recession Odds

Flattening Yield Curve Signals Recession

"What are plummeting interest rates saying about the outlook for the economy? The spread between the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and two-year notes is the narrowest since 2007. A model maintained by Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Zeng, who adjusts the spread for historically low short-term interest rates, suggests the yield curve is now signaling a 55 percent chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months."


Yield Curve Flattens Again

On June 10, I noted Yield Curve Flattens Again: 30-Yr Yield Just 19 Basis Points From Record Low

The chart has not changed much since then.

US Treasury Yield Curve
Larger Image


Recovery Increasingly in Question

  • The 30-year long bond is just 19 basis points from the low set in January of 2015.
  • The 10-year note is just 20 basis points from the low set in July of 2012.


Ten-Two Spread 2013-Present

Ten-Two Spread 2013-Present


Ten-Two Spread 1976-Present

Ten-Two Spread 1976-Present

Mish Tweet

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment