• 2 days Markets Unfazed As Inflation Hits 13-Year High
  • 2 days How the Token Economy is Disrupting Financial Markets
  • 4 days FBI Investigating 100 Types Of Ransomware Attacks
  • 6 days Fed Ends Corporate Credit Emergency Lending Program
  • 8 days AMC Becomes the Latest Winning Meme Stock After GameStop
  • 10 days The Real Reason Your 401k Has Been Lagging
  • 10 days China Lifts Cap On Births, Allows Three Children Per Couple
  • 12 days The Market Is Ripe For Another GameStop Saga
  • 15 days Senate Grills Big Banks Over Pandemic Opportunism
  • 17 days Cannabis Has A Major Cash Problem
  • 17 days Ransomware Netted Criminals $350M In 2020 Alone
  • 18 days Russia Is Taking On Google
  • 19 days Chinese Regulators Deal Another Big Blow To Bitcoin
  • 20 days Ohio Residents Brave Vaccine for Chance To Win $1M
  • 22 days Inflation Is Coming. Are You Prepared?
  • 23 days 3 World-Shaking Trends Investors Need To Watch This Year
  • 23 days Travel Might Get Another Supersonic Disruption
  • 24 days The World Is Running Out Of 6 Key Resources
  • 26 days $15/Hour Minimum Wage Might Happen Naturally
  • 27 days Money-Laundering Binance Probe Report Adds To Bitcoin Woes
Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

US Recession Odds Hit 55% According to Deutsche Bank Model

A Deutsche Bank yield curve model says the odds of a US recession are now 55%. Specifically, the model notes the flattening of the yield curve, something I have mentioned numerous times recently.

Bloomberg reports U.S. Recession Odds Climb to 55% as Yield Curve Flattens.


Recession Odds

Flattening Yield Curve Signals Recession

"What are plummeting interest rates saying about the outlook for the economy? The spread between the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and two-year notes is the narrowest since 2007. A model maintained by Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Zeng, who adjusts the spread for historically low short-term interest rates, suggests the yield curve is now signaling a 55 percent chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months."


Yield Curve Flattens Again

On June 10, I noted Yield Curve Flattens Again: 30-Yr Yield Just 19 Basis Points From Record Low

The chart has not changed much since then.

US Treasury Yield Curve
Larger Image


Recovery Increasingly in Question

  • The 30-year long bond is just 19 basis points from the low set in January of 2015.
  • The 10-year note is just 20 basis points from the low set in July of 2012.


Ten-Two Spread 2013-Present

Ten-Two Spread 2013-Present


Ten-Two Spread 1976-Present

Ten-Two Spread 1976-Present

Mish Tweet

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment