• 1 day Bitcoin Lives Up To Its Safe Haven Status In A Big Way
  • 2 days 14 Million People Will Lose Unemployment Benefits On December 31st
  • 3 days Why 12 Million American Millionaires Isn’t Good News
  • 4 days Big Oil Is Paying The Price For Investing In Renewables
  • 5 days The Banking Industry’s $35 Billion Gravy Train Could Disappear
  • 6 days Did Amazon Just Democratize Prescription Drugs?
  • 8 days The Private Space Race Just Got Very Real
  • 9 days Short Sellers Are Willing Big In This Turbulent Market
  • 11 days SpaceX Gets Go-Ahead To Send Humans Into Space
  • 12 days Saudi Arabia Lost $27 Billion In Oil Crash
  • 12 days China’s Big Tech Takes A Hit As Regulators Crack Down
  • 13 days Black Friday Could Be Retailers’ Only Hope
  • 14 days Why You Should Not Dump Your Stay At Home Stocks Just Yet
  • 15 days The Real Reason Why Uber And Lyft Stocks Have Soared Nearly 50%
  • 17 days Bitcoin Heads Towards $16,000 And No One’s Cashing In
  • 18 days Elon Musk’s $250 Tesla Tequila Is Already Sold Out
  • 19 days Will The San Francisco Wealth Tax Spark An Exodus Of The Rich?
  • 20 days The Fin-Tech IPO Of The Century Just Got Crushed
  • 21 days UK Bookies Report Largest-Ever Political Bet Ahead Of Election Results
  • 22 days Better Safe Than Sorry: 5 Alternative Investment Plays
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Nowcast GDP Estimate Dips to 2.1%, GDPNow at 2.8%

The last FRNBY Nowcast report was on June 3.

It's been two weeks since the last report. Why the delay? The answer is last Friday was caught in a blackout period before the FOMC meeting this week.

In contrast to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model, the Nowcast model declined since the last estimate.

Please consider the June 17 FRNBY Nowcast Report.


Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast is slightly above 2% for both 2016:Q2 and 2016:Q3, having declined slightly over the past week.
  • This week's news had an overall negative effect on the nowcast.
  • The largest negative contributions came from manufacturing data, only partly offset by positive news from retail sales and housing data.


Second Quarter Nowcast Estimate

Second Quarter Nowcast Estimate


Nowcast Running Detail for One Month

Nowcast Running Detail for One Month
Larger Image


Third Quarter Nowcast Estimate

Third Quarter Nowcast Estimate

These are not strong reports. And they don't portend rate hikes, or a strengthening economy, but they are not recession-looking yet.


Four GDP Estimates

  1. New York Fed Nowcast June 17: 2.1%
  2. Atlanta Fed GDPNow June 17: 2.8% GDPNow June 17
  3. Markit June 3: 0.7% to 0.8% Composite PMI Flirts With Contraction; Markit Chief Economist Estimates GDP 0.7-0.8%
  4. ISM June 3: 1.6% Non-Manufacturing ISM Much Weaker Than Expected


Backtesting

I did hear back from a senior economist with the New York Fed regarding backtesting: "The FRNBY nowcast has been back-tested for more than ten years. We also rely on extensive and growing research and experience on nowcasting that documented the reliability of the approach in real time for other samples (including the 90s) and for many countries."

I gave my reasons why I think JOLTS and Unemployment data should have subtracted from GDP estimates on June 3 in New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I'll Take "The Under"); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?


Modeling Discussion

For a discussion of the Nowcast and GDPNow models, please see Conversations with New York and Atlanta Fed Senior Economists on Their GDP Models.

Finally, at turning points I reiterate both of these models are likely to be far off because of revisions. For discussion, please see the preceding link. Also note US GDP Revisions for 11 Years Coming Up: How Big Will They Be?

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment