• 23 hours China Launches Digital Yuan As U.S. Dallies
  • 5 days Squid Game Rampage Fails to Lift Netflix Stock After Stellar Earnings
  • 5 days Why Tesla, EV Stocks, Could Remain Highly Volatile For Years
  • 7 days Did Big Bank Earnings Just Signal ‘Real’ Economic Recovery?
  • 8 days The Cannabis Industry Is Looking To Fill The Employment Gap
  • 8 days Apple Capitalizes On Upward Momentum Ahead Of Earnings
  • 11 days Earnings Beat Isn’t Enough for S&P 500 Q3
  • 13 days The New World Tax Order
  • 14 days Is Crypto Finally Ready To Pay The Piper?
  • 15 days Is It Time To Buy The Global Gaming Market Dip?
  • 18 days Even The Mafia Has A Millennial Problem
  • 20 days Zuckerberg Loses Billions in Social Media Outage
  • 21 days ‘Pandora Papers’ Leak Reveals More Financial Crime
  • 22 days US Retail Has A Major Supply Chain Problem
  • 25 days China Has Set Out To Crush Crypto...Again
  • 26 days Top Performing Cannabis Stocks of the Year
  • 27 days Millennials Could Power A 20-Year Bull Stock Market
  • 32 days The Million-Dollar Question: Will China Bail Out Evergrande?
  • 34 days 3 Restaurant Stocks In Full Recovery Mode
  • 34 days Bitcoin Is Driven By Testosterone
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Nowcast GDP Estimate Dips to 2.1%, GDPNow at 2.8%

The last FRNBY Nowcast report was on June 3.

It's been two weeks since the last report. Why the delay? The answer is last Friday was caught in a blackout period before the FOMC meeting this week.

In contrast to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model, the Nowcast model declined since the last estimate.

Please consider the June 17 FRNBY Nowcast Report.


Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast is slightly above 2% for both 2016:Q2 and 2016:Q3, having declined slightly over the past week.
  • This week's news had an overall negative effect on the nowcast.
  • The largest negative contributions came from manufacturing data, only partly offset by positive news from retail sales and housing data.


Second Quarter Nowcast Estimate

Second Quarter Nowcast Estimate


Nowcast Running Detail for One Month

Nowcast Running Detail for One Month
Larger Image


Third Quarter Nowcast Estimate

Third Quarter Nowcast Estimate

These are not strong reports. And they don't portend rate hikes, or a strengthening economy, but they are not recession-looking yet.


Four GDP Estimates

  1. New York Fed Nowcast June 17: 2.1%
  2. Atlanta Fed GDPNow June 17: 2.8% GDPNow June 17
  3. Markit June 3: 0.7% to 0.8% Composite PMI Flirts With Contraction; Markit Chief Economist Estimates GDP 0.7-0.8%
  4. ISM June 3: 1.6% Non-Manufacturing ISM Much Weaker Than Expected


Backtesting

I did hear back from a senior economist with the New York Fed regarding backtesting: "The FRNBY nowcast has been back-tested for more than ten years. We also rely on extensive and growing research and experience on nowcasting that documented the reliability of the approach in real time for other samples (including the 90s) and for many countries."

I gave my reasons why I think JOLTS and Unemployment data should have subtracted from GDP estimates on June 3 in New York Fed Nowcast Up to 2.4% (I'll Take "The Under"); Modeling Error on Unemployment Rate?


Modeling Discussion

For a discussion of the Nowcast and GDPNow models, please see Conversations with New York and Atlanta Fed Senior Economists on Their GDP Models.

Finally, at turning points I reiterate both of these models are likely to be far off because of revisions. For discussion, please see the preceding link. Also note US GDP Revisions for 11 Years Coming Up: How Big Will They Be?

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment