• 348 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 348 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 350 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 749 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 754 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 756 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 759 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 759 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 760 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 762 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 762 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 766 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 767 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 767 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 770 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 770 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 773 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 774 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 774 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 776 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

13-14 Month Low

The 20th century market guru, George Lindsay, explained that, no matter how long a bear market lasts, there is usually an obvious low 13 to 14 months after the previous bull market high (in this case, May 2015). This 13-14 month low is important even though it may not be the low of the Basic Cycle. 13-14 months is the time span of a long Basic Decline.

"Not just any secondary top or bottom. But the secondary high or low, the one that fairly jumps out at you from a bar chart."

The duration of any rally after month 13/14 is variable; it can continue as long as five months. The duration of the rally is a relatively minor matter. The important part is this: Once the period of rallies ends and the market again turns down, the active part of the remaining decline has always been brief - not more than about three months at most. The decline to the Basic Cycle low has rarely lasted longer than 101 days.

Any remaining decline to a lower low, from the top of a bounce off of the 13/14 month low, has always been brief. A maximum decline of 101 days after the top of the bounce should be expected.

The above assumes higher highs are to come. However, if the Dow is engaged in a terminal decline (the final decline of the Long Cycle from point H or J to point M) then the 13-14mo low is followed by both a relief rally then another Basic Decline (~1 year) to lower lows. If the Dow breaks the February lows then it is a good bet that equities are in a Terminal Decline on their way to point M.

For now, it is enough to know that this 13-14 month low is due in either June or July this year.

A simplification of all long cycles since 1798

 


Get your copy of the June Lindsay Report at Seattle Technical Advisors.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment