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BREXIT and Silver Update

One week on from the United Kingdom shocking the world by voting to leave the European Union, one would be not be lacking in predictions of doom and gloom across the political and economic board. As one who voted to leave the nascent European Superstate, the oft (mis)quoted words of Benjamin Franklin came to mind when he suggested that those who trade liberty for security deserve neither.

The Pound and British stock markets promptly dived, as did practically all the major stock indices. Reassuring words from the Governor of the Bank of England on currency intervention and possible QE played their part as did the actions of those seeking a bargain in cheaper stocks. At the time of writing, the markets are bouncing back as the realisation that nothing has actually happened yet dawns on investors.

The Prime Minister has to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to begin divorce proceedings and until then, nothing substantial will happen. This will involve at least two years of negotiation, during which time markets will respond as they perceive how the negotiations are proceeding. Crucial will be the negotiation regarding trade tariffs as that will have the biggest impact on the economy of both the UK and EU.

Just now, it is all about fear and uncertainty. You can bet that the ultimate outcome won't be as bad as the "Remain" camp said and not as good as the "Leave" camp argued. The next recession was already on its way anyway as there has not been one for seven years and that is above the average recession to recession period for the last 60 years. The expectation may be that these events will exacerbate rather than cause a recession.

Meanwhile, I had mentioned in a previous article how silver priced in Pounds Sterling had responded to the slow motion dive of the Pound against the US Dollar as we saw a gap open up between silver in Pounds and silver in Dollars.

It is fair to say that the gap has widened even more since Brexit was confirmed. As a silver investor, I won't need to tell you that silver as priced in dollars has broken to a new high of $19.39 as I type. Using the recent low of June 1st ($15.81) gives a total rise of 22% in 30 days.

Meanwhile, the equivalent rise in silver as priced in pounds is 34% from £10.86 to £14.56. The chart below (courtesy of netdania.com) shows the relative movements of silver in pounds (top line) and silver in dollars. As you can see, silver in pounds is comfortably outperforming silver in dollars.

Silver in Pounds and Dollars

Meanwhile, the talk is of silver gaining an advantage while the stock markets eventually tank down into recession. I would be careful what one wishes for here. I can quite understand the logic of how financial institutions taking money off the equity table may put some of it into precious metals. Likewise, the current volatility in the Pound and Euro can also encourage diversification (and I still think the US Dollar has peaked). But that has to be offset by the drop in silver demand by industry, electronics and jewelers as recession bites.

In every issue of my silver newsletter, I reproduce the table below to remind subscribers how silver and the US S&P500 have correlated over the last 143 years. As you can see, precious few are the years when silver is up when the equity markets are down. I think I would rather go with the flow of history on this matter.

Silver versus S&P500 1873-2015
Both Up Both Down Silver Up SP500 Down Silver Down SP500 Up
1933-35 1873-96 1915-20 1980-93
1942-68 1929-32 1972-74 1998-00
1976-80 1936-42   2011-15
1993-98 1974-80    
2003-07 2008-09    
2009-11      

I calculate my own recession indicator for subscribers and when that flashes green for recession, the probabilities are more favorably disposed towards this emerging silver bull taking a rest at that point (and recession-proofing your own affairs). Currently, that indicator is not flashing "recession" and neither are my silver indicators flashing "sell". The silver bull is far from over!

 


Further analysis of silver can be had by going to our silver blog at http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com where readers can obtain subscription details for the Silver Analyst newsletter. A free sample copy can be obtained by emailing silveranalysis@yahoo.co.uk.

 

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