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Dan Norcini

Dan Norcini

Dan Norcini is a professional off-the-floor commodities trader bringing more than 25 years experience in the markets to provide a trader's insight and commentary on…

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Gold Continues to Move Higher: Stunning GLD Demand

Safe haven gold continues its strong showing as plummeting interest rates and shaky global equity markets are creating a strong bid in this market.

Gold pushed up towards last week's high and in the process pushed through yet another overhead resistance level in the $1345-$1350 level.

Based on what I can see from this chart, there appears to be little resistance in its path until closer to the $1385 level. Above that lies psychologically significant $1400.

Weekly Gold Chart
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Daily Gold Chart
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The real kicker for today however was the massive surge in reported GLD holdings. A whopping 28.8 tons of gold were reportedly added to GLD. I have not gone back to check my database but I suspect this might be very close to a record one day total or if not, a new record in itself. Gold holdings are now at 982.7 tons, the highest level since June 2013.

GLD Gold Holdings versus Gold Price
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This is absolutely phenomenal demand.

In my view, this is all traceable to the collapse in interest rates. The yield curve is growing flatter and has broken into yet another new low.

10-Year Treasury minus 2-Year Treasury
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Simply put - there is no opportunity cost in owning gold at this time nor is there any particular reason to be aggressively selling the metal. This is in spite of the record high fund long exposure.

Disaggregated CoT
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Hedge Fund longs and shorts, Gold Price
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Processor/Merchant and Swap Dealer Net Positions
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These numbers are already outdated as it has been a full week now since the COT data graphed above was reported. There is no doubt in my mind that the hedge funds have piled on even more longs. And why should they not given the environment?

 

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