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Crude Oil - Accumulation Lines are Drawn

Catching a falling knife

Using Richard Wyckoff logic lets review Crude oil. This is not catching a falling knife!

We see Preliminary support with a bounce to the TEST, why is this a TEST and not the Automatic Move, easy, look how week the volume was to the test, the weak rally shows that shorts were holding through this pullback for lower lows, and yes they got the new lows!

The Selling Climax looks very real, notice the climactic action (ie volume spike), so does the automatic move, notice the solid volume (ie solid short covering).

Under Richard Wyckoff Logic the Selling Climax and Automatic move define the support and resistance line for the expected consolidation period that should follow over the months (or years) ahead.

A Test of the $40 (or lower) is to be expected. The Selling Climax requires a test of lessor volume, to show the supply is drying up, this is called a secondary test.

If we get another Selling Climax (below the current one shown) the chart will need to be redrawn, supply must reduce to show accumulation has started and the Selling Climax is the line in the sand for demand (or accumulation).

Is there a trade here, the best advice is 'do not trade the range', wait for supply to dry up, plus wait for a few downward trend lines to be busted (supply lines) and go hunting near selling climax support.

Watching and waiting!

Crude Oil Monthly Chart
Larger Image

Investing Quote...

"There were times when my plans went wrong and my stocks did not run true to form, but did the opposite of what they should have done if they had kept up their regard for precedent. But they did not hit me very hard - they couldn't, with my shoestring margins." ~ Jesse Livermore

"If it's obvious, it's obviously wrong." ~ Joe Granville

"If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians." ~ Warren Buffett

"It's easier to fool people, than to convince them they have been fooled." ~ Mark Twain

"it is better to have few stocks and to watch them carefully." ~ Bernard Burach

 

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