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Will this Crude Oil Rally Hold?

Pipeline

Crude has finally reversed higher to recover some of its recent losses, and is now showing clear evidence of a new Daily Cycle (DC) and Crude Oil Rally.  There are early signs of a new Investor Cycle (IC) as well.

Midweek, Crude bottomed on day 44 before reversing sharply higher and punching through the declining trend-line. And when it closed above the 10 day moving average, Crude confirmed that it is in the early stages of a new Daily Cycle.  From this point forward, Crude’s performance will depend on its Investor Cycle and the bear market as a whole.

Daily Oil Chart
(Note: Chart is from the weekend post. Crude is approaching my first mini target at $44 on Tuesday)

In terms of sentiment, there was enough of a selloff to suggest that an ICL occurred. Even though pessimism did not drop to the level of the previous 2 bear market ICLs, it was more than adequate for an ICL, especially with the weekly Cycle extended beyond its normal timing band.

Crude Oil Optix

At the very least, Crude has seen a DCL, so we should expect at least 1-2 weeks of upside.  Eventually however, given that Crude is in a bear market with a series of lower ICs in play, all paths should lead lower. And that should continue for some time to come.

Oil Weeky Chart

 


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