• 628 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 628 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 630 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,030 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,035 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,037 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,040 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,040 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,041 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,043 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,043 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,047 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,047 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,048 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,050 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,051 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,054 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,055 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,055 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,057 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Real vs. Nominal Interest Rates

What is the real interest rate? It is the nominal rate minus the inflation rate. This is a problematic idea. Let's drill deeper into what they mean by inflation.

You can't add apples and oranges, or so the old expression claims. However, economists insist that you can average the prices of apples, oranges, oil, rent, and a ski trip at St. Moritz. This is despite problems that prevent them from agreeing on what should be included.

One problem is that we no longer need buggy whips. If buggy whips had been in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) before the advent of the car, what do you do when it goes out of general use? Substitute driving gloves (which most people don't use)?

Another problem is that cars are vastly superior today than they were 50 years ago. Having had a chance to drive a classic 1965 Mustang with drum brakes, I can tell you it was scary to drive on the highway at 55 mph. I didn't dare drive it faster, as the stopping distance felt like it would probably be half a mile. But, of course, every car on the road was whizzing past me at +20mph. Cars today cost more. How much do we attribute to inflation, and how much to the fact that they are better and contain many more gadgets?

Worse still, the process of determining which items to include in CPI is politicized. Pensioners and union workers want CPI to rise as much as possible, because their income is tied to it. Pension fund managers want CPI to rise as little as possible, because their obligation is tied to it. Government officials also want a low CPI, as high inflation may be viewed as a measure of their mismanagement of the economy.

Finally, the effort to calculate the cost of living assumes that we can agree on what living means. To some, it may mean a rural lifestyle, cooking simple meals in a paid-off trailer. To others it may mean a rented urban rent loft, eating at hip foodie restaurants every night. To a large group of baby boomers, it means owning a large house, driving a BMW, and sending the kids to private school.

The very theory of measuring the CPI as an indicator of inflation is flawed. Unfortunately, that doesn't stop the government from compiling a CPI, and helpfully providing it to the economics and finance professions.

One use for the CPI is to adjust the interest rate. Let's look at how this works.

There is an actual rate at which actual lenders actually lend and actual borrowers actually borrow. Most days, the government conducts billions of dollars of transactions at this rate. Private parties conduct billions more.

So in keeping with the Orwellian character of our era, we'll call this price observed in the market, the nominal rate.

Economists adjust this nominal rate. Guess what you get, if you subtract the CPI from the nominal rate of interest.

The real interest rate.

Got that? The nominal rate is the real market price and the real rate is when you subtract a controversial construct.

I often think that modern monetary economics has no redeeming virtue. However, whenever I think that's too harsh, I come across a notion like real vs. nominal rates.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment