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Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

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Raj TC Review and Forecast

Review: From my last 6/24 public blogpost, I was looking for a 6/24-27 major Low.

Actual: 6/27 was a major Low, from where we rallied a whopping 202 SP's into 8/15/16 High. The dominant cycle stopped working after some time and the market has been stuck in a 2 month long choppy trendless sideways channel, probably due to the Summer Doldrums, but that is about to end.

S&P500 Chart 1
Larger Image

Even though we got stuck in this 2 month sideway channel, the Solar and Geometric Time CIT (Change in Trend, High or Low) dates continue to work with a high degree of accuracy:

Our proprietary Time CITs:

  1. 6/27 Geo CIT => 6/27L
  2. 6/30 Geo CIT => 7/1 High
  3. 7/3 Weekend Solar CIT (7/1-5) => 7/1 High
  4. 7/7 Geo CIT => 7/6L
  5. 7/18 Solar CIT => Miss or 7/15L
  6. 7/22 Geo CIT  => 7/22H
  7. 7/26 Geo CIT  => 7/27L
  8. 7/30 Solar CIT => 8/1H
  9. 8/11 Solar and 8/11 Geo CIT => 8/10L
  10. 8/12 Friday Geo CIT is Monday 8/15H
  11. 8/18 Solar and Geo CIT => 8/17L
  12. 8/23-24 Solar and Geo CIT => 8/23H
  13. 8/30 Solar CIT & 8/31 Geo CIT => 9/1L

We have a Time and Cycle cluster due in the 1st weeks of September.

Time CITs:

1. 9/6 Geo CIT => 9/7H

2. Calendar Days to Trading Days CIT due on: 10/4/11L+1240 CD = 2/15/15H, +1240 TD =  9/7H.

3. 144 TD Inverse Cycle: 7/20/16H =2/12/16L-1,  12/2/15H =6/29/16L-2, 1/20/16L =8/15/16H and 2/11/16L = 9/7H

2.  9/12 Solar and 9/12-13 double Geometric CIT

Cycle CITs.

S&P500 Chart 2
Larger Image

1.  The 47 TD Cycle of alternation of Highs and Lows (Blue lines in SPX Daily) suggests a 9/1L or 9/7H: 9/29/15L-45-12/2/15H-48-2/11/16L-47-4/20/16H-47-6/27/16L-47- 9/01/16L or 9/7/16H

S&P500 Chart 3
Larger Image

1. 290 CD/41-42 week Cycles: 5/10/06H -290-2/24/07H -290-12/11/07H-291- 9/27/08H-284-7/8/09L-292- 4/26/10H-298- 2/18/11H-280-11/25/11L-294- 9/14/12H -283 -6/24/13L-291-4/11/14L-297-2/2/15L -287-11/16/15L-290-= 9/01/16 +/-7-8 CD

SP declines averages 107 SP's in the 290 CD cycle:

(larger declines in 2007, 2008 and 2010 were not counted)

107 (05/10/06H-06/14/06L),

094 (02/22/07H-03/14/07L),

087 (06/11/09H-07/08/09L),

095 (02/18/11H-03/16/11L),

134 (10/27/11H-11/25/11L),

131 (09/14/12H-11/16/12L),

127 (05/22/13H-06/24/13L),

083 (04/04/14H-04/11/14L),

112 (12/29/14H-02/02/15L),

097 (11/03/15H-11/16/15L),

S&P500 Chart 4
Larger Image

2. The NDX 66 week cycle is due 1st week of September+/-, which should be a major High.

Conclusion: We have been stuck in a 2 month boring, choppy sideways channel, but any solid break of that channel support at 2165/ES or 2167 SPX will be a CIT. I had a Time and Cycle Cluster due in the 1st week of September and 2 timing CITs for that to occur: 9/6-7 or 9/12.The 9/7 High is looking good right now.

 

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