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Raj TC Review and Forecast

Review: From my last 6/24 public blogpost, I was looking for a 6/24-27 major Low.

Actual: 6/27 was a major Low, from where we rallied a whopping 202 SP's into 8/15/16 High. The dominant cycle stopped working after some time and the market has been stuck in a 2 month long choppy trendless sideways channel, probably due to the Summer Doldrums, but that is about to end.

S&P500 Chart 1
Larger Image

Even though we got stuck in this 2 month sideway channel, the Solar and Geometric Time CIT (Change in Trend, High or Low) dates continue to work with a high degree of accuracy:

Our proprietary Time CITs:

  1. 6/27 Geo CIT => 6/27L
  2. 6/30 Geo CIT => 7/1 High
  3. 7/3 Weekend Solar CIT (7/1-5) => 7/1 High
  4. 7/7 Geo CIT => 7/6L
  5. 7/18 Solar CIT => Miss or 7/15L
  6. 7/22 Geo CIT  => 7/22H
  7. 7/26 Geo CIT  => 7/27L
  8. 7/30 Solar CIT => 8/1H
  9. 8/11 Solar and 8/11 Geo CIT => 8/10L
  10. 8/12 Friday Geo CIT is Monday 8/15H
  11. 8/18 Solar and Geo CIT => 8/17L
  12. 8/23-24 Solar and Geo CIT => 8/23H
  13. 8/30 Solar CIT & 8/31 Geo CIT => 9/1L

We have a Time and Cycle cluster due in the 1st weeks of September.

Time CITs:

1. 9/6 Geo CIT => 9/7H

2. Calendar Days to Trading Days CIT due on: 10/4/11L+1240 CD = 2/15/15H, +1240 TD =  9/7H.

3. 144 TD Inverse Cycle: 7/20/16H =2/12/16L-1,  12/2/15H =6/29/16L-2, 1/20/16L =8/15/16H and 2/11/16L = 9/7H

2.  9/12 Solar and 9/12-13 double Geometric CIT

Cycle CITs.

S&P500 Chart 2
Larger Image

1.  The 47 TD Cycle of alternation of Highs and Lows (Blue lines in SPX Daily) suggests a 9/1L or 9/7H: 9/29/15L-45-12/2/15H-48-2/11/16L-47-4/20/16H-47-6/27/16L-47- 9/01/16L or 9/7/16H

S&P500 Chart 3
Larger Image

1. 290 CD/41-42 week Cycles: 5/10/06H -290-2/24/07H -290-12/11/07H-291- 9/27/08H-284-7/8/09L-292- 4/26/10H-298- 2/18/11H-280-11/25/11L-294- 9/14/12H -283 -6/24/13L-291-4/11/14L-297-2/2/15L -287-11/16/15L-290-= 9/01/16 +/-7-8 CD

SP declines averages 107 SP's in the 290 CD cycle:

(larger declines in 2007, 2008 and 2010 were not counted)

107 (05/10/06H-06/14/06L),

094 (02/22/07H-03/14/07L),

087 (06/11/09H-07/08/09L),

095 (02/18/11H-03/16/11L),

134 (10/27/11H-11/25/11L),

131 (09/14/12H-11/16/12L),

127 (05/22/13H-06/24/13L),

083 (04/04/14H-04/11/14L),

112 (12/29/14H-02/02/15L),

097 (11/03/15H-11/16/15L),

S&P500 Chart 4
Larger Image

2. The NDX 66 week cycle is due 1st week of September+/-, which should be a major High.

Conclusion: We have been stuck in a 2 month boring, choppy sideways channel, but any solid break of that channel support at 2165/ES or 2167 SPX will be a CIT. I had a Time and Cycle Cluster due in the 1st week of September and 2 timing CITs for that to occur: 9/6-7 or 9/12.The 9/7 High is looking good right now.

 

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