We are getting closer to our long forecast drop in the commodities complex with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.
We continue to forecast a period of Dollar and Yen strength over the next few months which will have an impact on many of the markets we forecast. We have been forecasting for some time that the the Pound would be the weakest of the major currencies going forward and we got our drop last week, a little earlier and deeper than forecast but none the less well within our forecast parameters.
We have also been forecasting a new down leg down in the Euro against the Dollar over the coming weeks and our forecast has remained on track for some time, there is still the possibility of a final rise before we fall.
We are forecasting a correction in global stocks over the next six months, we think the SPX along with most of the major indices has either put in a top or is in the process of topping out, this fits in well with our commodity and forex forecasts.
Our S&P500 forecast has for some time been indicating that we are on the verge of a period of weakness it may take a few more weeks before we begin to see the market drop in earnest.
We are currenly expecting a new down leg in commodities, a stronger Dollar and an even stronger Yen during the fourth quarter of this year, we anticipate these dynamics will create the conditions for some key markets to sell off for a period which will relieve some over bought conditions necessary for a healthy market.
Taking patterns in nature that repeat over different time frames like fractals as the basis for the forecast methodology, our forecast patterns can last for months and years, we create a most probable long term fractal pattern and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.
You can follow our short term forecasts on our web site.