• 9 hours Chinese Stocks Soar On Bullish Economic Data
  • 15 hours Apple’s “Holy Grail Of Data” Leaves Energy Traders Disappointed
  • 17 hours Gold Rally Adds $250 Billion To Top 50 Miners' Market Cap
  • 1 day TikTok Is Becoming A New Battleground For Tech Politics
  • 2 days Peru's Mining Industry Pummeled As Coronavirus Cases Surge
  • 2 days Why The World Is So Divided In Its COVID-19 Response
  • 2 days Equities Cheer Stellar Jobs Report, But It May Be Fleeting
  • 3 days Is Tech Billionaire Peter Thiel Done With Trump?
  • 4 days Musk Takes To Twitter To Troll The SEC
  • 5 days Lunar Mining May Commence As Early As 2025
  • 5 days Immigration Will Go Bust Without $1.2B Bailout
  • 6 days The Economics Of The Space Race
  • 7 days Why The World's Central Banks Aren't Yet Sold On Renewables
  • 7 days How Much More Cash Can Uber Burn?
  • 8 days Inside The Biggest Counterfeit Gold Scandal In Recent History
  • 8 days EU-U.S. Trade Relations Are Deteriorating
  • 8 days Over 184 Companies Have Bailed On Facebook
  • 9 days BP Sells Petrochemical Business For $5 Billion
  • 9 days U.S. Moves To Secure Domestic Rare Earth Supply
  • 9 days E-Commerce Explodes As Boomers Go Digital
Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Summary of My Post-CPI Tweets

Below is a summary of my post-CPI tweets. You can (and should!) follow me @inflation_guy or sign up for email updates to my occasional articles here. Investors with interests in this area be sure to stop by Enduring Investments. Plus...buy my book about money and inflation, published in March 2016. The title of the book is What's Wrong with Money? The Biggest Bubble of All; order from Amazon here.

  • CPI coming up in 14 minutes. Consensus on core is for a barely 0.2% print, (more like 0.15%). That would keep the y/y barely at 2.3%.

  • Remember to join me at 9am for a (FREE) live interactive video event at http://events.shindig.com/event/tmenduringinvestments

  • okay, core 0.1%, y/y to 2.2%. Yayy! And by the way it was only 0.11% so not close. y/y to 2.21%.

  • core rate is only 1.8% over last 3 months, vs 2.0% over last 6 and 2.2% over last 9. November tightening is wholly out.

  • Housing accelerated, Medical care roughly unch. Educ/Communication dropped. Getting breakdown now.

  • Headline was also soft. Market was 241.475 bid before the number and 241.428 was the print. Still rounded to 0.3% m/m though.

  • Bonds don't love this as much as I thought they would. 10y note up about 4 ticks after the data.

  • 10y inflation swaps also didn't do much. Close to 2% for first time in a long, long time.

  • Primary rents 3.70% from 3.78%, I was reading last month. But OER still up, 3.38% from 3.31%.

  • New and used cars -1.16% vs -0.95%, so more weakness there.

  • In Med care: Drugs 5.38% vs 4.59%, ouch. But prof svcs 3.22% vs 3.35%, and hospitals 5.64% vs 5.81%, and insurance 8.37% vs 9.10%.

  • But those are all retracements within trend.

  • Tuition ebbed to 2.32% vs 2.53%, and "information and info processing" -1.98% vs -0.90%. Those two add up to 7% of CPI.

  • I can see why bonds aren't super excited. This isn't a trend change. It looks like a pause.

  • ok, have to go get ready for the video event. See you at http://events.shindig.com/event/tmenduringinvestments ... in about 10.

  • Probably good news from Median as well. I see 0.17%, bringing y/y down to 2.54% vs 2.61%. But hsg is median category so I may be off.

I covered some stuff in the Shindig event, but it's worth showing a couple of charts. Here is health insurance. You can see the little drop this month isn't exactly something that would make you say "whew! Glad that's over!"

CPI - Health Insurance

This next chart, also in medical care, is the year/year change in the cost of medicinal drugs (prescription and non-prescription). Also, not soothing. And these are where the important things are happening in CPI right now.

CPI - Medicinal Drugs

Finally, the big momma: Owners' Equivalent Rent. This is not looking like it's rolling over! And if it's not rolling over, it's not likely that inflation overall is rolling over.

CPI - Owner' Equivalent Rent

In short, the monthly weakness was enough to sooth the Fed and take them off the table for November. And, unless the next figure is really, really bad – like over 0.3% - then they'll still say "two of the last four are soft." The December Fed meeting, for what it's worth, is the day before the CPI is released. The Fed won't know that number in advance, although nowadays with "nowcasting" they'll have a clue. But at this point, unless next month's CPI is very high and/or the Payrolls number is very strong, I think a rate hike in December is also unlikely.

That's good for markets in the short run. But inflation is rising, and that's bad for markets in the medium-run!

 


You can follow me @inflation_guy!

Enduring Investments is a registered investment adviser that specializes in solving inflation-related problems. Fill out the contact form at http://www.EnduringInvestments.com/contact and we will send you our latest Quarterly Inflation Outlook. And if you make sure to put your physical mailing address in the "comment" section of the contact form, we will also send you a copy of Michael Ashton's book "Maestro, My Ass!"

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment