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The Dominant Alternating Cycle

I first mentioned the 47 TD alternating cycle back on September 9 2016, when it was looking for an early September High. The 41-42 week cycle mentioned in that same post, also topped out at the same time and has an average 107 SP decline.

S&P500 Daily Chart
Larger Image

The dominant 47 TD (Trading Days) alternating High and Low cycle has been in the markets since late September 2015 and suggests a 11/08/16 Election Low, with a minimum 2093 SPX channel Target.

1. 09/29/15L - 12/02/15H, Low to High.

2. 12/02/15H - 02/11/16L, High to Low.

3. 02/11/16L - 04/20/16H, Low to High.

4. 04/20/16H - 06/27/16L, High to Low.

5. 06/27/16L – 09/07/16H, Low to High.

6. 09/07/16H – 11/08/16L, High to Low is next!

Also notice 34 TD, after the 47 TD Cycle High or Low is also a CIT (High or Low):

  1. 09/29/15L – 11/16/15L = 34 TD
  2. 12/02/15H – 01/20/16L = 32 TD
  3. 02/11/16H – 04/01/16H = 34 TD
  4. 04/20/16H – 06/08/16H = 34 TD
  5. 06/27/16L – 08/15/16H = 34 TD
  6. 09/01/16L – 11/19/16H = 33 TD

Dow Daily Chart
Larger Image

The Dow Jones down channel support touches the 61.8% retrace by 11/8. If we do the same 61.8% in the SPX we will target 2069 SPX at the 200 DMA.

Conclusion: The 34 TD CIT of the 47 TD Cycle arrived 1 day earlier at the 10/19H at 2148.44 SPX, which was a double Top with the 10/14 Apex CIT High at 2149.19 SPX.  From the 10/19H, the 47 TD Cycle suggests we see a choppy decline into 11/8 election Low, targeting 2093 SPX or 2069 SPX and a strong rally afterwards.

 

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