• 4 hours Bezos’ Next Big Project Could Be Worth $100 Billion Per Year
  • 6 hours 3,600 Years Later, Climate Change Turns Mammoths Into $40M Market
  • 10 hours Tesla, Apple Claim China Is Stealing Intellectual Property
  • 12 hours EV Giants Duke It Out For Battery Dominance
  • 1 day Tech Billionaire Takes Aim At Google
  • 1 day Chinese Police Bust Largest Ever Illicit Crypto Mining Operation
  • 1 day Expect A Pullback Before Gold's Next Major Rally
  • 2 days Why Interest On Gold Matters
  • 2 days Ten Extravagant Food Items For The Wealthy Only
  • 2 days Why Saudi Arabia Won't Give Up On The Aramco IPO
  • 3 days $32 Million Crypto Heist Halts Tokyo Exchange
  • 3 days Is A Gold Selloff Looming?
  • 4 days Central Banks Are Stashing Gold And Dumping Treasuries
  • 4 days Three Cannabis Trends Flying Under Investors’ Radars
  • 5 days $1.3 Billion In Cocaine Found On JPMorgan Vessel
  • 5 days Amazon Teams Up With Lady Gaga To Win Over Generation Z
  • 5 days Dollar Falls As Powell Teases Rate Cuts
  • 6 days Will The World's First Trillion Dollar Company Ever Bounce Back?
  • 6 days Many Americans Will Never Stop Working
  • 6 days Mozilla vs DarkMatter: The Cyber Espionage End Game
Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.


November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 1.6% for 2016:Q4.
  • Overall positive news during the last two weeks pushed the nowcast for Q4 up 0.2 percentage point.
  • Manufacturers' shipments and ISM manufacturing survey data had the largest positive contributions in the last two weeks.

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast


November 4, 2016: 4th Quarter Nowcast Detail

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast Details
Larger Image


Mish Comments

The GDPNow Forecast rose from 2.1% to 3.1% since the last estimate.  0.8 percentage points was due to auto sales.

The FRBNY Nowcast report does not even factor in auto sales.

Also note that exports added 0.019 percentage points to Nowcast, but 0.06 percentage points to GDPNow.

Once again it's not the data per se that drives either forecast, rather, it's the data vs. what the model predicted.

Regardless, there is a massive difference in how these models see things right now.

At least one of these models is way wrong.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment