Our forecast down phase for WTI has now begun, we warned that $50 would be the top and that we would descend in to 2017 with a potential major low to come. Our forecast has not changed and we could easily see price back down to $30 early in 2017. We expect this weakness to be reflected in many other parts of the commodity sector.
We have been forecasting for some time that the the Pound would be the weakest of the major currencies going forward and so far it has been with the Euro not far behind.
The Euro has shown some strength over the past couple of weeks but it does not alter our longer term target, we still expect the Dollar to outperform most major currencies as we head in to 2017. The Euro has made a back test against the Dollar but is likely to continue falling heavily as we end the year.
We have been forecasting a correction in global stocks over the next six months. Our S&P500 forecast has remained on track for months, it has been indicating that we are on the verge of a period of weakness. Last week we saw lows not seen since July, this price action was entirely in line with our forecasts and we now expect to see the market drop in earnest towards the end of the year.
We are still forecasting a new down leg in commodities, a stronger Dollar and an even stronger Yen during the fourth quarter of this year. We anticipate this Dollar strength will create the conditions for some key markets to sell off for a period which will relieve some over bought conditions necessary for a healthy market.
You can view live short term forecasts at our website, they are a representation of our medium and long term forecasts which always show the full picture, prices tend to be more random day to day than they are week to week or even month to month. Our short term forecasts are always anchored against these larger patterns that barley change from week to week, this is what allows us to be so confident with our shorter term forecasts in spite of the increase in volatility.
Taking patterns in nature that repeat over different time frames like fractals as the basis for the forecast methodology, our forecast patterns can last for months and years, we create a most probable long term fractal pattern and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.