Dow Jones Industrial Average 10,838
Value Line Arithmetic Index 1,915
30-Year Treasury Yield (TYX) 4.65%
20+ Year Treasury Bond Price (TLT) 90.70
Gold 1/10 Ounce (GLD) $49.95
The Big Picture for Stocks
The short, intermediate, and long term pictures are all negative.
Technical Trendicator (1-4 month trend):
Stock Prices Down
Bond Prices Up
Gold Price Up
Two out of three of our primary sentiment indicators for stocks are at levels that usually portend an intermediate downtrend. Coupled with that, the market is overbought and rolling over to the downside. (See our chart below.) In addition, the 4-year cycle for stocks is negative into 2006.
This is a combination of factors that puts a significant decline highly probable, in my opinion.
While I do expect the January bounce factor to move selected oversold microcap stocks on our Special Situations list to have tradable rallies over the next month, the broad market should be avoided.